September 18, 2011- Palestinian Statehood at UN? Israeli Leadership Failures?

A Daily Analysis

After not writing for a week, due to family reasons, I can honestly say that while much seems to have been happening, everything that could have been written last week was still in the form of speculation; speculation that continues.

What is going to happen at the UN this week is still very much up in the air. The Palestinians have announced they are going to request statehood from the UN Security Council, where the US has a veto. The US is said to be working to avoid having to use its veto. Instead the US hopes to find 7 countries to oppose the bid.

The question of why Abu Masen has chosen to take the direction he is taking is not known. There are two schools of thought: The first, is that he does not care and just wants to go down in history as the one who pushed for statehood, regardless of the consequences. The other possibility is that a deal has been struck in which the security council will delay any vote for six months and use that time to force negotiations to begin again.

If a vote is blocked in Security Council, the Palestinians are expected to go the General Assembly where passage is assured. Thomas Friedman wrote an excellent article in today's NYTimes, entitled: . I could not agree with Friedman more. Whatever happens it is clear that the current Israeli government is incapable of influencing events.

Of course when one talks about the Israeli government, one must look at the the possibility of alternative governments, and last week's Labor Party Primary was certainly not an inspiration. While the new Labor leader, Shell Yechmovich, a relative party newcomer, is a very interesting candidtate, the fact that Amir Peretz even ran and came in second is beyond belief. How a failed leader keeps running again in Israel is astounding. Of course, we do have Netanyahu, take 2 now, after a failed first term.

Finally, last week's special election, that took place in a heavily Democratic and Jewish district has been interpreted to mean that Obama is in trouble with the Jews. It's probably partly true, but before you make up your mind, check this interesting article the Atlantic, whose conclusions are similar to the research I did two decades ago.