August 28 - Israelis Prepare for a Possible Attack

There is one item that leads all of the news shows today... and that is of course, the expected American attack on Syria. While the whole question interests Israelis greatly, the one item on everyone's mind is– Will Assad attack us if he is attacked? Of course, the true answer is– No one knows. The statement by the government that there is "only a small chance" that Syria would attack Israel does not give Israelis a sense of confidence. Many remember what was said by government officials here the day before America’s attack on Iraq in the Gulf War– "There is not a chance that he will really attack us". Of course, I never understood that statement. I was sure then that Sadaam was going to attack, and acted accordingly. I was here right before and during the first few weeks of the Gulf War. I have been trying to compare the atmosphere. My sense is that Israelis are much calmer now. Certainly, people are concerned– suddenly making sure they have their gas masks- (we got ours a year ago). Yes, there is a sense that something might occur. However, somehow there is not the dread that I remember from before.

How do I explain why, and in what ways people feel differently this time? I think the answer is threefold. First, almost every part of the country has lived through some sort of missile attacks in the last two years. While was some damage has been done, thank goodness, very few lives have been lost. Certainly nothing compared to the same period in the second intifadah- with bus bombings and much more. Remember, the First Gulf War took place before the horrors of the second Intifadah. If the country can get through that we can get through almost anything.

Second, we have two active missile defense systems deployed– both the Iron Dome and the Chetz II have both been deployed to intercept any missile coming from Syria. This system is not full proof, but we do not have to simply sit here and depend on providence to determine where a missile will land.

Finally, there is a realization that while there was little we could do against Iraq– which was hundreds of miles away– the Golan Heights is only 40 miles from Damascus. There is very little of the Syrian army left to stop any Israeli incursion (if need be), nor does the Syrian Air Force provide any obstacle to the IAF. So as crazy as it was for Saddam Hussein to attack Israel, it would be even crazier for Assad to do so. Saddam had hoped that by involving Israel he could break up the US coalition. However, Israel is no longer as toxic in the Arab world as it was then. Most Arabs would silently cheer if Israel was to take care of the butcher of Damascus– someone whom the Sunni Arabs are stating "is no longer an Arab, but a Persian".

On a positive note... Over 400 Ethiopian olim arrived today in Israel. This marks what is being called "the end of the official large scale aliyah from Ethiopia" It still leave behind about 5,000 people who claim to have first order relatives living here. The problem being, as usual, "Mi hu Yehudi?" (Who is a Jew?). It's been the Interior Ministry that has been determining the answer to that question. Until very recently, that ministry has been controlled by the Shas party. We will see if the new minister will be able to bring in any real changes.