May 24, 2009-IDF Unveils Missile Defense Plans

A Daily Analysis

Today, the IDF unveiled its overall anti-missile plans for the first time. The public disclosure of the plans are, no doubt, a reaction to both the latest Iranian missile launch and the troubling poll taken at the end of last week (30% of Israelis would consider leaving if Iran were to get the bomb.) The IDFís plan calls for a four-leveled defensive shield.

The first will be the Chetz-3, which is currently under development. The US has agreed to continue funding most of the development of the Chetz-3. The Chetz-3 will intercept an incoming missile in space before it reenters the atmosphere.

The second level will be the current Chetz-2, which is now operational and can successfully intercept incoming missiles in the upper atmosphere.

The third level is currently under development by the US and Israel and will intercept missile in the lower atmosphere. It is designed to be a multi-purpose anti-missile system that will work against the medium range missiles Hezbollah has, as well as, provide a third wave of defense against long-range missiles.

Finally, there is "Iron Dome", designed to down a short-range missile such a Qassam or Grad. It will also work as a last ditch effort to down an incoming ballistic missile before it can hit its target. The Chetz-2 is operational now; Iron Dome will be operational next year. The other two systems will require another 5 years of development before they become operational.

The massive investment in a defensive system has required a complete change in the thinking the IDF. Since the early days of the state, the IDF has relied on strategy built on offense. The world of missiles, especially after the Lebanon war, forced a complete change in the orientation of the IDF. I have always been a believer in anti-missile technology. While they do not provide a 100% guarantee they can protect Israel against a missile attack. The four-tiered system will make it nearly impossible for a missile to get through. While Iran might be willing to risk an Israeli return strike for the chance to destroy Tel Aviv, I doubt that even they are willing to launch a missile that will only have a small chance of reaching its target, when the absolute result of the attack will be the destruction of Teheran in return.

The news from the Middle East was dominated by the story "Der Spiegl" broke that it was Hezbollah, and not Syrian agents that killed former Lebanese President Hairiri. Hezbollah denies the report, but has the possibility of overturning what was thought to be possible victory by Hezbollah in the elections. Reportedly, "Der Spiegal" is going to have further expose on the assassination tomorrow. The story has the distinct possibility of shaking up the Lebanese political situation.

There is a very depressing review of what is no doubt a very depressing book by Benny Morris -One State, Two State . The premise of a book is that the Palestinians will never be able to accept Israel's existence. However, Morris believes, at the same time, that a one state solution is clearly not possible. The review is incredibly depressing. I am sure the book will be more so. I will get a copy to read and review.

The lead story on Israeli TV tonight was about the level of waste in the Netanyahu government. As part of the coalition deal, the ministry of the Regional Development that was closed, was reopened so Sivan Shalom who was not given a significant ministry (as promised), could be kept happy. When Shimon Peres was the head of the ministry he had 30 people in the ministry. Shalom is getting 100 at a cost of 20 million shekels a year.