Israeli News: A Daily Analysis

A Daily Analysis

By Marc Schulman

October 22, 2008- Hamas Fatah Agreement Possible- Coalition Talks Continu

In January the electoral term of Abu Mazen, will come to a close. Hamas has made it clear that when that happens, they will consider Abu Mazen illegitimate and will reserve the right to fight him in the West Bank. This has pressed Egypt to try to force Fatah and Hamas to reach an agreement between them. The Egyptians have presented a plan that would result in simultaneous new elections for the Palestinian Parliament as well as for President of the Authority. Abu Mazen accepted the proposal, his views seems to be that Hams is not as popular as it was when it was in the opposition and that Fatah would likely win, and thus reestablish unified government. Hams, while initially expressing interest in the plan, has backed away from it. This is no doubt for the very same reason as Fatah is willing - they are not willing to test their popularity with an election.

Coalition talks continue. One of Minister of Foreign Affairs Livni's advisors floated on Monday the idea that she could create a narrow government without Shas. The goal to put pressure on Shas, with the calculation being that while Shas might be fine with new elections, the one thing they would not want is to be in the opposition. In the meantime there is currently a 400 million difference between Shas and Kadima. If Shas would is willing to enter into the government there can be no doubt that the difference can be bridged. If however Shas has no intention of entering into a Livni government then next week President Peres will call for elections, that will take place in 90 days.

A new survey of poverty in the OECD nations (world wealthy nations) was released yesterday. It showed the average poverty rate of countries that are part of OECD countries at 11% while in Israel, the poverty rate is 23%. The poverty rate among children is 3 times higher in Israel than in OECD countries. Of course, when it comes down to the solutions- Israel faces unique challenges. The Haradim and the Arabs both have very large families and are often unemployed or underpaid. Israel is in almost impossible position in trying on one hand not provide incentives for such large families on the other hand not to allow children to live in poverty. There is no good solution.