July 4, 2007

It is the 4th of July 2007, and one year from now we will almost definitely know who the candidates for President are. At the moment however, we do not know much more then we knew three months ago. The big news this week has been the race to raise money and once again Senator Obama has astounded political observers by substantially out raising Senator Clinton. Obama has certainly energized a large group of democratic voters. Never before have so many given so much money. Despite the enthusiasm Obama has not succeeded in moving beyond his current group of supporters. There have been three democratic debates and Clinton seems to have won each of the debates. She always seems to come across as more prepared, and more ready to be the President from the first day. On the other hand there is no taking away from the fact that the enthusiasm for Obama certainly amongst the large cadre of 250,000 donors is not waning. Edwards fundraising was down a little. Governor Richards everyone favorite dark horse seems to have gained a little traction and raised 7 million dollars, nothing like the 32 million that Obama raised, but then Richardson has a small staff and an operation that does not require the same level of cash. We tend to blame the cost of media for the high cost of running campaigns, but I wonder how much each candidate is paying their top advisors and consultants.

The most striking numbers are not the differences between the Democratic candidates, but how much more the leading democrats have raised in comparison to the leading Republican candidates. Former Mayor Giuliani the leader both in the polls and in the fundraising garnered a total of $17 million slightly more then half what Obama has raised. This portends for a very difficult year for whoever is nominated by the Republicans. The Republicans have traditionally been able to count on having a better-funded campaign. With enthusiasm so high for the democrats and so low for the Republicans they probably not have that advantage in 2008

The big news on the Republican side is the failure of Senator McCain to raise anything close to what he had projected to raise. He raised a total of 11 million and more ominously his campaign only has $2 million dollars on hand. It would seem that being the candidate most publicly identified with the Iraq War has put McCain in an unwinnable position.

May 7, 2007

If March was the month of the unlikely April seems to be the month that reality came to the race. While Obama fever dominated the news following his announcement, that he would run, the enthusiasm of March failed to grow into momentum in April. The latest poll taken by CNN if fact shows that Senator Hilary Clinton has extended her lead over Senator Obama. The democrats had their first debate and by all account nobody stood out. All of the front-runners acquitted themselves well, but there were no standouts. Now a few months into the campaign the democratic field is much the way it began, with Senator Clinton in the lead and the majority of democrats happy with their candidates.

On the Republican side the lead the Mayor Giuliani held a month ago has been rapidly evaporating. As more and more Republican primary voters understand his position on repealing Roe vs. Wade his support weakens. Many pundits questions whether anyone with Giuliani positions on social issues could ever win the Republican nomination, the answer is probably not. In the meantime most Republicans are unhappy with their field of candidates and event though ten contenders have officially announced former Senator Thompson who has not announced polls in third place in most of the polls.

April 5, 2007

When the history of the election of 2008 is written, the month of March 2007 will probably go down as the month that the candidacy of Senator Barak Obama went from a curiosity to a full fledged challenge to the candidacy of Senator Hilary Clinton.  For last month was a month of ever growing crowds that followed Obama wherever he went.  It was a month a grass roots support that almost needed to be restrained.  It was punctuated with the release of the quarterly fund raising totals that showed Obama raising an astonishing $25 million only $1million under the figure raised by Clinton.  His 25 million came from 100,000 individual twice the number of contributors that Clinton had.  There can be no doubt that Obama is now a true threat to Clinton, and that the aura of inevitability that Clinton had tried to project is now gone.  In the meantime Senator Edwards together with his wife Elizabeth announced that her cancer had reoccurred.  Their joint announcement and his decision to remain in the race was widely supported by the American people.  Opinion polls show Clinton still comfortably ahead in the polls, with Obama support in the national polls seemingly reached a plateau.  Edward trails behind together with the unannounced Vice President Gore, who claims to have no plans to run.

On the Republican side Mayor Giuliani remains the leader, much to the surprise of pundits, who all believed once his views on social issues became better known his support would fall.  One of the important factors behind Giuliani’s continued strength is the fact that he seems to be the most electable Republican candidate.  Early polls show him defeating both Clinton and Obama in a projected 2008 race.  The failure of Senator McCain to either gain ground on Giuliani and his poor showing in the first quarterly fundraising has fueled speculation on what is wrong with his campaign.  Part of his problem is clearly his identification with the war in Iraq.  While the other Republican candidates support the President- he is the one most identified with the current policies.  Governor Romney was the surprise fundraising star on the Republican side raising a total of $20.6 million to lead the Republicans. His fundraising however, came largely from the Mormon community and thus may not be a good indicator of broader support.

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Some correspondents have complained that the race has not been about issues but seems to be more about personalities (see Paul Krugman in the NYT 2/26). I am not sure why Krugman is surprised. There is very little difference in the positions of the democratic candidates on most issues, and that should not surprise us. The Democrats are united on most issues. What we should hope for is a clear fight on the issues in the general elections. Not a fight about gay marriage or abortion, but a fight over taxes and the budget, the environment and the global fight against terrorism. I won't hold my breadth, but I am hopeful.