Presidential Election of 2008

Campaign Analysis

by Marc Schulman

September 3 2008

There is no question that Senator McCain swung for the bleachers when he picked Sarah Palin as the Vice Presidential candidate. For a few days it looked like it might have been a long foul ball, but tonight its clear after her acceptance speech that he hit it out of the park. It was clearly the best speech of the Republican convention, and maybe one of the best political speeches of the year. In the speech she managed to both show her own strengths while attacking the democratic ticket. Election day is two months away; it will be a very interesting two months.

August 25, 2008

The conventions have finally arrived and while they no longer have the true drama of days gone by when they actually decided on the nominee, they are sure to include political theater. The democratic convention will have the most unconventional moment when Senator Obama gives his acceptance speech in front of a stadium full of "fans". I am not sure what the organizers were thinking of when they decided on that venue. I am sure it will have appeal within the party faithful, but among the undecided it could be a major turn off.

The official campaign season begins next weekend with Labor Day. Obama has his work cut out for him. In 1976 Jimmy Carter, an unknown Governor of Georgia, was leading President Ford by 34 points in the opinion polls. The Republicans in power in the immediate post Nixon period were as unpopular as the Republicans are today. Today however, all the opinion polls show Obama and McCain effectively tied. Obama's campaign has been going no where quickly since Senator Clinton won her primaries on mini Tuesday in March. He went on to clench the nomination but only based on his early momentum. Obama has the twin problem of neither having a resume befitting a President nor looking Presidential. He looks younger than he is, and his looks reflect his experience.

America is clearly yearning for change and Obama can win this election if he proves to swing voters that he can bring about that change without too great of a risk. With the world looking ever more dangerous, the bar is high. By adding Biden to the ticket Obama was trying to provide assurance that he had experience on his team. Ultimately however, the voters are going to want to know that they can trust Obama to make the right decisions when called up to do so. At the convention this week he has his chance to begin to close the deal, he could also lose it. Some correspondents have complained that the race has not been about issues but seems to be more about personalities (see ). I am not sure why Krugman is surprised. There is very little difference in the positions of the democratic candidates on most issues, and that should not surprise us. The Democrats are united on most issues. What we should hope for is a clear fight on the issues in the general elections. Not a fight about gay marriage or abortion, but a fight over taxes and the budget, the environment and the global fight against terrorism. I won't hold my breadth, but I am hopeful.