A Daily Analysis of Events in Israel and the surronding Arab

Major Events in Israel

An Analysis

By Marc Schulman

Thursday January 11, 2007

The Head of the Labor Party, Defense Minister Amir Peretz, appointed MK Raleb Majadele to be Israel's Minister of Science and Technology. Majadele is the first Arab Minister in Israel's history. Representatives of Israel Beitenu party attacked Majadele appointment. The chairman of their Knesset faction, Esterina Tartmen, attacked the appointment as a "lethal blow to Zionism". Her remarks were widely condemned by member of other parties, including members of the Likud party. Peretz's selection was widely seen as an attempt to solidify his support by Arab members within the Labor party. The problem no doubt with the appointment of Majadele is that he has just as much expertise to be the Minister of Science and Technology as Peretz has to be Minister of Defense.

Today Channel 10 published a poll of candidates for the chairmanship of the Labor Party. Ehud Barak led with 26.5% of the vote, while Ami Ayalon can in at second place with 25.5% of the vote. According to this survey, Peretz stood at 16%. In a runoff according to this survey Ayalon would beat Barak by a significant margin.

Today the Fatah movement celebrated its 42nd anniversary. Palestinian President and the head of Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas called on the Palestinians to stop firing at each other and to refrain from heading down the road towards civil war. At the same time he attacked Hamas and their "Iranian supporters". In an interesting discussion on El Arabeya (an Arabic TV channel), a secularist and an Islamist discussed the effect of the rise of Islamic governments and movements. The opponent of the Islamist stated that the rise of Islamic governments and movements has weakened Arab states and resulted largely in Arab death. He cited the fact that since Hamas has come into power five Israelis were killed by Palestinians, while 305 Palestinians were killed by other Palestinians.

Wednesday January 10, 2007

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert continued touring China today, making the required pilgrimage to the Great Wall. Olmert's warm reception by the Chinese Parliament caused commentators to take notice and mention that sadly, he is usually less welcome in the Knesset (Israeli Parliament).

Israel's relationship with China has always been complicated. China is deeply dependent on Middle Eastern oil and, as a consequence, maintains exceptionally friendly ties with many Muslim countries. Peking is host to embassies representing more than fifty Islamic countries all of whom vote in the UN. The Chinese have always been careful not to antagonize the Arab and Muslim world - which would likely be the result of public support for the State of Israel. Nevertheless, strong military and economic ties have been established between Israel and China. Israeli companies engaged in advanced research and development (R&D) are very sought-after by Chinese entrepreneurs. Also, Israel is major supplier of advanced arms and military technologies to China. Finally, many Chinese hold Jews and Israel in considerable esteem, believing that the Chinese and the Jews share many similar traits.

While in China, Olmert denied any wrongdoing in the cases that have been presented by the police investing possible illegal behavior. Meanwhile, Israel media reported that the investigation into the actions of Finance Minister Hirschson was more serious than previously reported.

On the political front Channel 10 News reported that Amir Peretz has told his confidants that he will need to step down as Defense Minister and assume a social ministry. Peretz's office denied the report.

Tuesday January 9, 2007

Israeli Attorney General Menachem Mazuz has ordered the police to open a criminal probe against Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on one of many investigations that are being conducted against him. The most serious of them is the charge that as Finance Minister, Olmert intervened in favor of one of the parties trying to buy Bank Leumi. Mazuz said that he examined all the evidence and felt there was enough suspicion to open a criminal investigation. Olmert joins a long list of former Prime Ministers as well as a large share of current cabinet members that are under criminal investigation. This is taking place during Olmert's trip to China. His main agenda there is to convey to China the dangers of Iran.

Israeli Military Intelligence chief, Major General Amos Yadlin, testified before the Defense and Foreign Affairs committee of the Knesset today, saying that Hezbollah has fully rearmed since the end of the Lebanon War in August 2006. Thus, any possible success that the Israeli government claimed to have had in the War has now been erased. The MI chief further stated that member of Al-Qaeda have been flocking to Lebanon.

On the political front, Defense Minister Amir Peretz publicly stated that he is too busy dealing with the important issues in order deal with political issues. The newscaster on Israeli TV ridiculed that statement, saying the only thing Peretz is doing these days is political and went on do describe a long list of the political meetings that the Minister has held recently .

Today New York Times features an excellent OP Ed piece called by Dennis Ross that attacks President Carter for misrepresenting the map that President Clinton suggested as a final status agreement. In his book, Carter presented two maps: one he called the Palestinian interpretation of the Clinton plan and the other the Israeli interpretation. According to Ross, the Palestinian interpretation was actually an earlier Israeli proposal, while the Israeli one was Clinton�s actual plan, which gave the Palestinians 97% of the West Bank. Ross's contention is that one of the largest problems in the Israeli Arab dispute is the myths believed by the sides. Ross says that the myth that Clinton did not offer enough to the Palestinians and thus Arafat was justified in rejecting the proposal is one of those dangerous myths.

Monday January 8, 2007

The scandal in Israel's Income Tax Authority continued to deepen today. A long list of additional people gave witness today, including a very close confidant of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, as well as the assistant to the Civil Service Commissioner. The essence of this scandal, which is the most serious of the many scandals engulfing the government, is the claim that the current Commissioner and possibly the previous one received their jobs with the understanding that they would appoint others to key positions. Implicit in the charge is that they would all give preferential tax treatment to political supporters of key individuals. The obvious question is whether it is possible that Ehud Olmert's office manager could be involved in the appointment of the Tax Commissioner without his knowledge. If that connection is made, this may turn out to be one scandal too many for Olmert.

On the political front, Barak, who announced that he was seeking to be the new head of the Labor party, gained momentum today. Minister of Tourism, Yitzak Herzog and other politicians have been showing their support of Barak. Defense Minister Peretz announced a new peace plan today, but most observers considered it to be a cynical move to slow Barak's momentum.

On a lighter note, former Prime Minister Netanyahu seems to have become a butt of some jokes on Israeli TV after making false factual claims on an Internet site regarding a number of his accomplishments in while in office.

The fighting continues between Hamas and Fatah. The issue of the connection between Hamas and the Iranians Shia remains a central point. Hamas made the tactical decision to accept money from the Shiite Iran, despite the fact that Palestinians are overwhelmingly Sunni. On one hand it has allowed Hamas to pay their soldiers three times what Fatah is paying, while on the other hand it has complicated their political situation substantially. The Shia jubilation at the hanging of Saddam, who the Palestinians supported, made that support all the more problematic.

Sunday January 7, 2007

Two very different events occurred today that might have a major impact on politics and with relations between Israel and the Palestinians. On the political from Ehud Barak announced that he was running for the Chairmanship of the Labor party in the May primaries. His election to that post would result in his becoming Defense Minister (something that has been rumored to might happen much sooner). Barak chances of regaining the leadership of the Labor party had been enhanced by two factors: a successful personal campaign to make peace with many former opponents in the party. More importantly the failure of the War in Lebanon and the refusal of any of the current military or political leaders to take responsibility for the failure has paved the way for a former military hero to return to the top ranks of leadership. Rabin was a most more successful Prime Minister the second time around. He as opposed to Barak who left politics for business in the intervening years spend those years as a member of parliament, and of course as Defense Minister. Let us hope that Barak has learned the right lessons in his period in political wilderness. Israel unfortunately needs Barak because Israel has painfully learned it cannot afford to have politicians without the proper experience making decision of life and death

A very interesting development occurred today in the fight between Fatah and and Hamas. Fatah in opposition to Hamas held a major rally in Gaza. Tens of thousand attended the rally in which they called the Hamas killers. In addition in his speech to the crowd Mohammed Dahalan called the Hamas tools of the Syrians and tools of the Iranians. His remarks were received with enthusiasm. Dahalan made it clear that the Fatah was not going to sit idly by while Hamas killed its men, and it was not going to sit idly by while the Palestinians proto state became a tool of Iran and Syria. The divide is now clear, the Palestinians are going to have to determine who they want to lead them-it may be by new elections, sadly for the Palestinians it will probably be at the point of a gun.