Israeli Elections 2019

 

 

Election Final Results

 

The final official election results are in. Despite the hopes of the New Right party that they would ultimately pass the electoral threshold, the election committee found no significant irregularities in their original vote count. There was one final shift. UJT, the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox Party received one extra seat, at the expense of one vote for the Likud. Thus, the Likud and the Blue and White parties each ended up with 35 seats.

Last week’s election results show that the Israeli electorate is made up of four groups:

1) Right-wing, largely secular voters (44 seats, made up of Likud, Kulanu and Yisrael Beitinu);
2) Religious voters (21 seats, made up of Jewish Torah, Shas and Jewish Home);
3) Center/left-wing voters (45 seats made up of Blue and White, Labor and Meretz); and finally,
4) Arab-Israeli voters (10 seats, made up of Balad and the Joint Arab List).

 

While the numbers of votes for one party or another within the groups has changed a little in this election, overall, the electorate has remained remarkably stable. Now that the final results are in, many of the reporters who cover political and legal matters in Israel are all saying the same thing. While they almost all disagree with nearly everything Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked stand for ideologically, all agreed the two were honest and hard working — much more so than many in the Knesset, and as such, the pair will be missed. Bennett and Shaked’s decision to form a new party was the greatest political miscalculation in Israeli history, leading in the end to two senior ministers who are now unemployed.

 

 

One final thought that cannot be left unsaid. The polling throughout this election process was way off. Spend two minutes looking at the final election results and scroll down to the many polls, and see how off-base the pollsters predictions were, all along the way.

 

 

Election Anaylsis

 

“This is a night of an incredible, incredible victory” proclaimed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his victory speech, late Tuesday night. Indeed Netanyahu’s victory in this election was historic. Netanyahu is now poised to become Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister; in few months, exceeding the tenure of founding Prime Minister David Ben Gurion. Netanyahu won despite facing indictment on multiple corruption charges and a quartet of challengers that included three former IDF chiefs of staff, (who should have easily stolen Netanyahu’s credential as, “Mr. Security,” but did not succeed in doing so).

In retrospect, it turns out that Netanyahu’s initial campaign message was the most effective, i.e., depicting the trio of generals as “weak left-wingers.” As a result, while the generals were instrumental in uniting all those who oppose Netanyahu, they did not succeed in convincing almost any right-of-center voters to leave Netanyahu’s coalition and support them.

Once again, Netanyahu proved his abilities as a master campaigner, who knew how to do whatever it took to win. At the last moment, he managed to siphon off enough right-wing supporters to vote for him and ensure his party was largest, while not destroying all of his potential coalition partners.

In 1982, Prime Minister Menachem Begin made a pact with the ultra-Orthodox parties. In return for their support, Begin guaranteed generous financial resources for their institutions, as well as, protection from the drafting of their members. That pact remains incredibly durable to this day. It is that unshakable support from ultra-Orthodox voters that guaranteed Netanyahu would indeed lead the next coalition.

Netanyahu’s next step will be to negotiate the details of his coalition agreement. He will do all that he can to ensure his partners will not desert him, after his likely indictment— as his plan seems to be to remain Prime Minister throughout his trial, and if need be, his appeals.

There were several significant losers in the election — first and foremost, the Labor party. The party which founded the state and dominated its policies until 1977, only received six seats. Labor’s leader, Avi Gabbay, a refugee from Netanyahu’s government, will no doubt either resign or be voted out. Gabbay’s failure in this election, combined with his unilateral decision to oust Former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni will not be forgiven. The further left-wing Meretz Party ran a ridiculous, value-free campaign, whose sole message was — “Save Meretz, because without Meretz there is no revolution”. With their four seats, there is neither a revolution, nor barely even a party. The two parties which represent the Zionist left-wing will need to rethink their place in Israeli politics, and indeed, whether there is a need for both of them.

On a personal basis, the two greatest losers are former Education Minister Naftali Bennett and former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked. Both Bennett and Shaked were senior ministers and members of the security cabinet. As of Wednesday morning, their new list, the New Right party has not made it into the 21st Knesset. While that may change when the so far uncounted votes of the soldiers get tabulated, the duo’s hopes of being influential figures in a coalition have evaporated. They gambled that there was space for a new right-wing, and lost.

However, the most surprising loser of this election was Moshe Feiglin, whose party some polls projected would receive as high as seven seats, just one week ago. It turned out that Feiglin, who ran an incoherent campaign, focused on support for the legalization of Marijuana, Ayn Rand capitalism, and a messianic view of the Land of Israel, was not taken seriously when it came to the actual vote.

The Israeli-Arab vote was down significantly. During the last election, all of the Arab Israel parties managed to unite. Formation of the unified Arab bloc created an expectation in their communities that they could become a force in the Knesset. Ultimately, that force proved weaker than many anticipated, and the four parties that made up the coalition fractured into two groups. As a result, voter turnout in the Arab sector dropped considerably. Their representation has been weakened from 13 seats to 10, and their tepid turnout helped ensure Netanyahu’s victory.

When the history of Israeli elections is written, this elections will go down as a tremendous personal victory for Netanyahu — as it was fundamentally a referendum on whether or not he should remain Prime Minister. What this election was not about, was what the future of the state of Israel should look like. None of the parties, neither right, nor left presented a coherent picture of the future they envision for the country. One can only hope that by the next election, parties will be prepared to present thoughtful, articulate visions of the future.

 

 

 

 

April 5 (16:00)

 

We have entered the final few days before the election. Netanyahu has pulled every rabbit out of his hat — Meeting with Trump, the President of Brazil who visited Israel, his own trip to Russia to retrieve the boots of our soldier (who fell in Lebanon 37 years ago) and personally to thank Putin for recovering the body. The polls are all over the place. Some polls show Likud in the lead; others suggest Blue and White is ahead.

The survey below is from Channel 12. Normally, Channel 12’s broadcasts would serve Netanyahu. However, Channel 12 shows the Blue and White party ahead. So today, Netanyahu began his “Gevalt” campaign — i.e. Blue and White is has gotten a leading edge, so you have to come and vote, and vote only for the Likud.

Will Netanyahu’s call to action work? It has in the past. The only three potential pitfalls this time are: One hand, Bibi’s cries of “Gevalt” tell his rivals there is still a chance they can be the victors, and could also persuade more of those who oppose Bibi to vote strategically — meaning, more support for Gantz and less for Labor, (since Labor currently polls with 10 seats, and a clear argument can be made that any votes Labor receives above the threshold will be a waste, as they could easily cause Blue and White to fall short of the votes they need to be asked to form the next government).

On the other hand, If Netanyahu’s plaintiff pleas work too well, and right-wing voters choose Likud en masse, several of the small parties on the right could fall below the threshold, in which case Netanyahu would not have a bloc from which to form a coalition.

Lastly, Netanyahu’s final problem is the enthusiasm gap of 8-10% that exists between the more enthusiastic voters who want to get him out of power, over those who want to see Bibi continue as Prime Minister. Barring a huge surprise, we will not know the results until Wednesday morning.

 

 

April 2 (21:30)

 

The newest election polls are out and they show that Likud is now garnering more votes than Blue and White, for the first time in this election cycle. Likud’s gain is no doubt due to the secret, leaked tapes, (from a few weeks ago), on which Gantz is heard saying he might sit in a Netanyahu government — a contingency Gantz continues to vehemently deny. The constant attacks on Gantz by Netanyahu might have had some impact. However, almost all of the drop in the Blue and White party’s standing is the result of people returning to support the Labor Party, which has jumped from 6 to 14 seats. Almost everyone I know is trying to decide between voting for Labor and Blue and White. My guess, is that in the end they will vote for Blue and White, so these poll numbers are likely to change.

 

The two big questions regarding the election that remain completely open are which parties will not pass the threshold (and whose votes will be lost as a result)? and who will Moshe Feiglin support after the election?

 

 

Investigations into Case 3000, the “Submarine Affair” continue. A direct tie between Israel’s purchase of submarines and the green light given to Germany to sell to Egypt was made public on the Israeli media tonight. Expect additional revelations about the submarine deal in the next few days.

 

 

March 29 (14:00)

The Israeli election campaign is coming down to the wire, with less than two weeks before the election takes place. Once again, the power of Prime Minister Netanyahu to run a successful negative campaign cannot be overstated. Events of the last few days should have worked against him. However, based on the latest polling, Netanyahu has only been strengthened and Gantz has lost support. At the moment Likud and Gantz’s party are both projected to receive the same number of votes. The Likud’s negative campaigns started with claims Gantz is a leftist, who will put the Arabs in government and moved to claims that Gantz’s phone had been breached by the Iranians , who could then blackmail him. The newest line is that Gantz is not sane and cannot be trusted, along with the follow-up campaign claiming Gantz is corrupt. The Likud campaign is extremely disciplined. Every one of their Knesset members remains laser-focused on the message of day; each and every one attacking Gantz on one of the above points. There is virtually no positive campaign on issues, except for one ad that shows how Bibi stood up to Obama, and another ad that shows Ted Cruz calling Bibi a modern day Churchill.

Bibi’s successful campaign during the past few weeks is all the more surprising, in that most of the country is not happy with his policies regarding Hamas — with 61% of Israelis who think he has done a poor job and only 22% who believe he is doing a good job. On the other hand, 51% of Israelis think Netanyahu is suited to be Prime Minister; while only 36% think Benny Gantz is suited for that position. Just one week ago, the two polled as equally suitable to serve as Prime Minister.

 

 

March 24 (23:45)

 

It has been a wild few days in the Israeli election campaign. Last week, word came out that Prime Minister Netanyahu had made $4 million from an investment in his cousin's company; a company that had merged with a major supplier of Thyssenkrupp, (i.e., the German submarine and corvette manufacturer, at the center of Case 3000, in which Netanyahu has not been a suspect until now). Netanyahu had previously stated he had no knowledge of any details regarding his cousins' company. It should be noted that Netanyahu has been receiving money regularly from that same cousin.

At the same time, it also came out that Netanyahu had approved the sale of an advanced submarine to the Egyptians, something that until Netanyahu became Prime Minister the Israeli government had continuously opposed. Last week, it was further claimed that Netanyahu gave the go-ahead for this significant policy shift without consulting or telling anyone else. These allegations hurt Netanyahu in the polls, which showed Thursday that the Blue and White Party had stopped their downward slide and regained the lead. Netanyahu needed to quickly change the focus and subject of public discourse.

On Thursday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had been in Israel for a visit, during which time, the Secretary of State made the unprecedented step of going to the Western Wall with Netanyahu. There were rumors about the impending US recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights (something we, Israel, does not precisely claim, but that is a different matter). However, when Pompeo was asked about a US policy shift regarding the Golan, during an interview scheduled to air here at 8 PM, and the Secretary of State answered that the subject had come up, but that President Trump would have to weigh a decision, and that in the meantime, nothing had changed.

I was scheduled to go on air, on i24News at 7 PM, to discuss the Pompeo visit. As I sat down in the studio, the anchor, Tracey Alexander turned to me and said — I guess Trump has recognized Israel’s sovereignty of the Golan Heights. I was not sure what she was talking about, but then I quickly look at my twitter feed and realize that five minutes earlier Trump had issued a tweet stating that it was time to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan.

Netanyahu had hoped that Trump’s announcement would end the talk about the submarines and his stock portfolio, but it did not. On Saturday night, on his way to AIPAC, Netanyahu stopped at the Channel 12 studios for a surprise interview. In his statement, Netanyahu defended his actions, and asserted he had not made any money from the submarines purchased by Israel under his watch, and contended they were bought after he had already sold his stock. Not all of that is true.

However, more importantly, for the first time, Netanyahu also admitted he had approved the sale of the advanced submarines to the Egyptians, adding he had not told the Army Chief of Staff or the Defense Minister, because the conditions were too highly confidential. Though Netanyahu went on to say, he had discussed the policy shift to allow the Germans to sell the subs to the Egyptians with the Attorney General and the Head of the National Security Council, one of his appointees. Tonight, the AG declared he had no idea what Netanyahu was talking about, and the Security Council member has said the same.

Netanyahu can now only hope his visit to AIPAC, his warm welcome by Trump, and whatever other goodies the President gives him, will be enough to alter the discussion in Israel.

Tonight's polls show little change from Thursday, with a slight tightening of the gaps between left vs. right blocs — according to Channel 13. However, Channel 12 shows Orly Levy’s party reaching the threshold, and her support going to Gantz — thus giving the center-left a majority of 61-59.

 

The one significant surprise of the election campaign has been the rise of the Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut Party, who according to the latest poll should earn six seats. Feiglin is far, far to the right on every issue. He calls for a flat tax and many other radical economic policies. Nevertheless, he has been getting growing support because of his call to legalize marijuana. His proposed plans for coping with the conflict are his most right-wing views — including his endorsement of removing the Waqf from the Temple Mount and replacing it with the Rabbinate. Feiglin advocates for convincing the Palestinians to move to other places in the world, and those who choose to stay, would be entitled to civil rights, but no rights to vote — unless they pledged allegiance to the Jewish State and were willing to serve in the army.

You can watch what he said in this video here.

Feiglin claims that the Oslo Agreement has cost Israel 1/10 of its budget. When I asked him what he was talking about, he said all the guards and security Israel has required — implying that before Oslo there was no need for security. It is hard to believe that Feiglin’s party is predicted to get six seats, however, at the moment, that is what tonight’s poll shows.

March 20 (23:00)

 

It was a difficult week for Gantz and the Blue & White Party. Earlier in the week some polls showed that the Likud had surpassed them. However, tonight’s new poll results are out, and according to the both major channels, Blue & White is once again in the lead. That is mostly a result of the successful rounds of interviews Gantz gave last night, coupled with their attack on Netanyahu on Monday night. While Netanyahu keeps talking about Gantz’s phone, Blue & White has kept talking about the Submarine Affair — and it seems to be working. (You can learn more here.)

As part of tonight’s poll, more Israelis thought Gantz was better suited to be Prime Minister than Netanyahu. This is the first time any candidate has polled stronger than Netanyahu in the last ten years. It should be noted that, as of the moment, the right-wing currently has more votes than the center-left bloc. The right-wing bloc still maintains a majority thanks to Moshe Feiglin, who has been promoting legalization of marijuana as the center-point of his campaign, along with a laissez-faire view of economics. However, Feiglin’s views on all other matters is far right, i.e., he supports annexation of the West Bank and the building of a third Temple in Jerusalem.

 

We are still three weeks away from the election. In the final weeks, people are likely to move their support from many of the smaller parties to one of the two main parties, causing at least some of those parties currently at the required threshold to fall below. Ultimately, this election will be determined by the question of which parties fall below and by how many more votes Blue and White gets, compared to the Likud.

 

March 17 (23:45)

 

It has been a hectic few days in Israel, all of which will impact the upcoming election. The turbulence of the campaign reached a new level during Thursday night’s news broadcasts when additional allegations of Netanyahu’s involvement in the submarine affair were aired; almost simultaneously with reports alleging the Iranians had hacked Benny Gantz’s telephone.

Talk of those two news items (suspiciously revealed around the same time) was temporarily pre-empted, when sirens started to go off in Tel Aviv, in the midst of the main 8 PM newscast. It became immediately apparent there was an incoming missile headed towards us; a feeling which was verified shortly after by the sound of a massive explosion. Most Tel Avivians took solace in the fact we had once again been saved by Iron Dome — even watching a much-shared video of the interception — only later to learn that no interception had taken place. Seemingly, there was no Iron Dome battery in the Tel Aviv area at the time. It was merely dumb luck that the missile fell on an open field in the city of Holon, just south of Tel Aviv. The deep thud we all heard was the impact of the missile crashing to the ground.

Later that night, the Air Force practiced its bombing skills on empty buildings in Gaza, and Hamas fired back a few rockets at the South, as their response. In the meantime, Hamas admitted it had been one of their missiles, but claimed “the rocket was launched accidentally.” Although that explanation is undeniably ridiculous, it was nevertheless repeated by Israeli news anchors and accepted by the government, since it would not have looked good for Netanyahu to admit Hamas was thumbing their nose at him, showing that, “Mr. Security” had no response to their action.

Over Shabbat, our little mini-exchange with Hamas was largely forgotten, as the hack of Gantz's phone came to the forefront. On Saturday night, Netanyahu started sending promoted Facebook posts to Israelis, asking if they would trust someone to be their Prime Minister, whose phone was hacked by Iran and who supported Iran.. However, by Sunday, as the Blue and White Party started to push back, the story a bit got murkier.

First of all, Gantz was notified months ago that his phone had been hacked. Since the Israeli cyber-defense authority works directly for the Prime Minister, questions were raised regarding who leaked the info, why it was released at this time, and finally, who fabricated the patently false story that Gantz had confidential security-related information on the phone, or alternatively, porn tapes. After which, a Likud spokesman suggested that Gantz might be a security risk, since the Iranians could blackmail him.

Others maintained the aforementioned comments were carefully planned by the Likud, so that in the weeks up to the election they could spread damaging false stories about Gantz, and place the blame on the Iranians. Of course, their logic had one small fallacy, i.e., they ignored the fact that if the Iranians wanted Gantz as PM, (as the Likud claimed), why would they release derogatory information about him? But, hey, what’s one more lie?

Now — more on the submarine saga, called “Case 3000.” This case sought to scrutinize why Israel ordered several more submarines than the Navy wanted, and more importantly, why Israel cancelled an international tender, in which South Korean, the US, and Israeli shipyards were bidding to build new frigates, in order to give a no-bid contract to the same German shipyard that was to produce the submarines in question. After completing their investigation, the police recommended the indictment of many people in this case, including, the former commander of the Navy, Netanyahu’s lawyer and cousin, and the head of the PM’s office. The Attorney General stated, however, that Netanyahu was not a suspect.

Subsequently, it came out last week that Netanyahu had owned stock in a company that supplied steel to the German submarine builder, and sold that stock to his cousin for $4 million, soon after becoming Prime Minister. (Note: Netanyahu did not disclose the holding while he served Finance Minister, and his cousin had previously lent him money to pay the capital gains tax on the sale.) Then tonight, the question was raised that I asked initially, when this information first came out— i.e. where did Netanyahu get money to buy that stock in the first place? Charges have been voiced by the media, and now by Gantz, suggesting that the $4 million might, in fact, have been his compensation for making sure a deal takes place.

One final note … Tonight, the Israeli Supreme Court decided to bar Ben-Ari, from the far right Otzma Yehudit party from running for the Knesset, in an 8-1 decision. The High Court accepted the recommendation of the Attorney General to ban Ben-Ari’s Knesset run, stating he is a racist and that violates Israeli law. The Supreme Court approved all of the Arab parties to run; those that the election commission, which is political body, had banned. It was legally the right decision to make, but politically, might play into the hands of the far-right.

How will all of these events play out in the remaining days of the campaign? No one yet knows, so, hold on to your seats.

 

 

March 11 (22:00)

The latest election poll from Channel 13 is out, and it shows both a smaller gap between the Likud and Blue & White party, and for the first time, the right-wing bloc has pulled out ahead, with a lead of 64 to 56. The major reason for this shift is the sudden success of Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party. Feiglin, an absolute rightist, who believes we should annex all of the West Bank, and even retake Gaza, has been running his campaign as a liberal — promoting policies of limited government, separation of Church and State, and most prominently, the legalization of drugs. As an Israeli Arab friend from Jaffa said to me tonight — “He [Feiglin] is the star of the parlor meetings in Tel Aviv.” The only good news for the center-left is that three parties on the right are polling just barely above the required minimums, and some, or all of these parties could drop below the obligatory numbers between now by the end of the campaign.

 

 

 

One of the Likud’s main election mantras has been to attack the Blue & White party, asserting B&W could only form a coalition with the help of the Arab Israeli parties. Culture & Sport Minister Miri Regev repeated that charge over the weekend. In response to Regev, actress Rotem Sela responded on her Instagram account saying, “What is the problem with the Arabs??? Dear God, there are also Arab citizens in this country. When the hell will someone in this government convey to the public that Israel is a state of all its citizens, and that all people were created equal, and that even the Arabs, and the Druze, and the LGBTs, and — shock — the leftists, are all humans.”

Netanyahu then replied to Sela’s comments by stressing, what he called “an important correction.” The Prime Minister proclaimed that Israel “is not a state of all its citizens, but the nation-state of the Jewish people alone”. Netanyahu’s remark set off a firestorm today, in which President Ruvi Rivlin responded by declaring the Prime Minister’s utterance as “an entirely unacceptable remark about the Arab citizens of Israel,” made as part of his election campaign. Rivlin went on to say, “There are no, and there will be no, second-class citizens; and there are no second-class voters”. The President continued: “We are all equal in the voting booth; both Jews and Arabs are citizens of the state of Israel. One hundred and twenty Knesset members cannot change its character as a Jewish State and 120 MKs won’t be able to change its democratic character.”

After I first wrote this update, I came across a comment posted my Arab Israel friend from Jaffa about the dispute between Rotem Sela and Netanyahu. He wrote: “Ben Gurion came out for Sela in 1947. Ben Gurion stated: ‘Now as we are about to create a state, let us remember that it will be not be Jewish State, it will be a state of all of its citizens. It will be Jewish State only for Aliyah and settling the land. Inside her, all the citizens will be equal. There will be no law that will stop an Arab from being the President, if the majority wants an Arab President. There will be no discrimination in the Jewish State.’” Ben Gurion spoke the words above at a meeting of the Labor Party, a few days after the UN Resolution on statehood was passed.

 

 

 

March 5 (23:30)

Last night, Likud officially launched its election campaign. One would generally expect the party’s list of Knesset members to be introduced, perhaps, along with a rousing presentation of the candidates parading on stage — however, not at this Likud campaign event. The Likud event was definitively the launch of the mission to re-elect Bibi. Everyone else present was merely an extra, to support the campaign’s main objective. While Bibi’s speech was not as long as Trump’s recent address to CPAC, there were many similarities in the content.

Netanyahu repeatedly railed against “the leftists who are out to get him” and “the media that plans to take him down” — not to mention “the fake investigations” against him. The Prime Minister’s remarks were almost as full of outright lies as Trump’s comments. Though instead of attacking immigrants, Bibi has Arab Israelis to attack. Apropos, the line that received the most traction at the Likud rally was Netanyahu’s cry that Israeli voters have a critical choice between “Bibi and Tibi” (Tibi being the Arab Israeli doctor who heads the Ta’al list.) Likud members exited their rally chanting: “Bibi or Tibi”.

The Blue and White party responded earlier today with a series of short ads, which asserted if you vote for Bibi, you’ll actually get a group of extremists — Smotrich as Education Minister; Ben Gvir to appoint judges; and Ben Ari, who called on Army troops to disregard orders, on the Knesset Foreign Affairs Committee. In short, they conclude a vote for Bibi is a vote for extremist in government.

Finally, the Bleich school in Ramat Gan held its legendary mock election today. Mock elections are traditionally conducted at the Bleich school prior to each national election. While the school’s results are not always 100% accurate, Bleich’s high schoolers did predict the surprising victories won by both Menachem Begin and Yitzhak Rabin. Today, the overwhelming winner was the Blue and White Party of Benny Gantz. It is 37 days until Israelis head to the polls.

 

 

March 2, (22:30)

The Israeli election campaign underwent a fundamental transformation on Thursday, when Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit announced his intention to indict Prime Minister Netanyahu in three separate criminal cases, pending a hearing. Until the AG’s announcement, talk of an indictment was just that. Although both the police and the prosecutor's office had recommended these indictments earlier, it is the Attorney General who has the final word on whether or not to prosecute.

Along with the announcement came details, both large and small, on what Netanyahu allegedly did. I will not repeat the entire list of charges. Here are just two small examples from what is called Case 1000, regarding which Israelis often laughed and said: “Oh, that case is only about some champagne and cigars …” However, the Attorney General cited expenditures of over NIS 700,000 in cigars and champagne, as well as jewelry for Sara Netanyahu. The AG offered many specific examples that provides some understandable color to the decision. According to one of the instances presented by the AG, when Arnold Milchen, Netanyahu’s chief purveyor of cigars, was refused an American visa, he immediately called Bibi, who immediately contacted the American Ambassador, with a request to intervene in support of Milchen. Subsequently, when that did not work, Milchin showed up at Bibi’s office with a case of champagne and requested that the Prime Minister call Secretary of State Kerry on his behalf, which Bibi did.

In Case 4000, the most serious of the cases against Netanyahu, the PM is accused of helping to secure regulatory approval worth NIS 1.8 billion for Bezeq owner Shaul Elovitch. In defense of Bibi, the Likud continues to state that Netanyahu never received anything of value from Elovich — claiming Netanyahu’s “benefit” was at most, two positive articles written in his favor, at Elovich’s request. The indictment, however, gives a long list of things Elovitch did for Netanyahu, including fulfilling the PMs instruction to cut off the live coverage of the Zionist Parties rally in Rabin Square, days before the last elections, and send out millions of SMS messages publicizing the Likud’s rally a few days later.

Publication of all the charges has begun to have an impact. There seems to be a slow migration of voters away from the right. For the first time, latest polls show that Netanyahu would not have sufficient support to form a government. According to the poll results, Lieberman’s party (Yisrael Beiteinu) would not pass the required threshold; while support for Blue and White remains steady. Backing for both Labor and Meretz has increased slightly, with some of their voters returning back to each of their parties. At the same time, voters from the soft right have migrated to Blue and White. The current poll also indicates that the Likud would only receive 59 seats toward putting together a coalition. Moreover, tonight, Moshe Kachlon’s Kulanu party stated they could be willing to enter into a Gantz-led coalition.

It is way too early to know how this election will turn out. However, for the first time, there is a sense that the re-election of Netanyahu is not a foregone conclusion. Netanyahu faces an impossible dilemma. The only way to try to catch up with Gantz is to persuade more right-leaning voters to vote for Likud, instead casting votes for the smaller right parties. If Netanyahu does that, however, a larger number of the right-wing parties could drop below the threshold and thereby guarantee a victory for the center-left.

 

 

February 26 (23:00 IST)

 

Theoretically, the general election campaign should be in full swing. However, at the moment, a certain sense of lethargy prevails. It is as if the candidates expended all of their energy on their primary campaigns. Well, that is not completely the case. On the right-wing of the political spectrum there seems to be plenty of power, though most of it looks like a circular firing squad.

Naftali Bennett of the New Right party has repeatedly attacked Netanyahu. Following Jared Kushner’s statement in an interview that the Trump peace plan would include a proposal for final borders, Bennett claimed Netanyahu would have no choice but to accept Trump’s plan, and therefore, the only option for right-wing loyalists is to vote for his New Right party, as they are the only ones able to stop Netanyahu from giving in to the US plan.

In the meantime, the storm started by Netanyahu’s maneuvers to force a merger between the Otzma Yehudit and Bayit HaYehudi parties has failed to die down. The AIPAC statement criticizing the mainstreaming of the Otzma Yehudit party was itself a central point in the news. The Likud and others on the right have been on the defensive. They are trying to create an equivalency between the action Netanyahu took to ensure the racist Otzma party would join the Knesset, and actions taken by other parties in the past to work in concert with the Arab parties. Alternatively, those same party mouthpieces assert that the “end” (i.e., saving a right-wing government), justifies the use of any means necessary.

It should be noted that attacking the Arab parties as “untouchables” has been a central part of the right-wing’s campaign against the Blue and White party, along with the insistence there is no way Gantz could form a government without Arab cooperation. During the last election, Netanyahu waited until the final day to broadcast that the Arabs were “rushing to the polls on buses” to vote against him. This time, the Prime Minister has started his underdog routine very early.

Tonight, the Likud’s advertising operation went one step too far. They put out a campaign ad, using graves in a military cemetery as the backdrop, with pictures of terror attacks perpetrated during the last few years parading across the screen, as the bold-faced typography warned: “If the leftist comes to power this is what will happen.” Criticism of the content was so sharp that Netanyahu ordered the ad be taken down.

This is what Bougie Ya’alon wrote:

“Netanyahu continues to crush Israel. It is simply unacceptable that the memory of those that fell in Israel’s defense and the honor of their surviving loved ones, that which has kept us united and connected throughout Israeli history will be utilized as a campaign tool, even at a time of personal or legal hardship. Netanyahu is destroying statesmanship on the altar of political survival. We have sunk to the lowest of lows. Enough is enough! It is time for a different leadership!”

 

Commentators wonder why Netanyahu is taking out his big guns six weeks before the election. The answer to that question might have to do with the fact that all indications are that the Attorney General is poised to announce the indictment against Netanyahu on Thursday. It was just reported that Netanyahu is cutting his trip to Moscow short and will return Wednesday night.

 

 

February 21 (23:13 IST)

They did not wait until the last minute … They announced their merger 12 hours before the deadline. Today, indeed marks one of the biggest days in Israeli politics in the last decade — punctuated by Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid’s announcement they have joined together to create the “Blue and White” party. The immediate results could be seen in tonight's pre-election polls, which showed that the new unified party has broken out ahead of Likud — with 36 seats, compared to 26 for the Likud. At the moment, however, the right-wing bloc is projected to have 61 seats, compared to 59 for the left-wing bloc. Polls tonight also showed several parties (both on the right and the left) hovering just above the threshold of being eliminated. Ultimately, which parties actually drop below the minimum number of votes required could determine which bloc wins.

 

A few important notes from the day:
The Gantz-Lapid merger includes a rotation, in which, if they become the largest political party and are tapped to form the government, Gantz will serve as Prime Minister for 2 1/2 years, and Lapid will take over as Prime Minister for the remainder of their Knesset term. Some people have been saying that Gantz gave away too much to ensure the alliance came to fruition. However, there is no question that this merger was essential. Without the merger, Gantz had no chance of gaining enough votes to pose a real challenge to Netanyahu. Furthermore, Gantz and his party have gotten something they did not have, i.e., a well-oiled machine. Yesh Atid has a robust network of field workers, and long-time loyalists; an entire infrastructure that Gantz, the extremely recent newcomer, lacked. I have worked with a few of Lapid’s people over the past few years, and they are good.

In addition, the creation of the combined “super-party” persuaded former IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi to agree to join politics. I should note that five years ago, the Likud passed a special bill dubbed “the Ashkenazi Bill” to prohibit IDF Chiefs of Staff from going into politics, until four years after stepping down from the military. Passage of that bill indicates the level of fear that permeated the political area regarding Ashkenazi’s popularity. I remember attending a rally in which Ashkenazi showed up as a surprise speaker. His appearance simply electrified the crowd. Five years have passed, but I would not underestimate Ashkenazi’s potential charm and appeal.

Netanyahu did not waste any time tonight, before attacking the new party made of three of the last four commanders of the IDF, labeling them all as “left-wing”. The Prime Minister has already begun to delegitimize the Israel Arab vote, by criticizing the possibility that Gantz would come to power with the support of the Arab Israeli parties; a tactic might yet work.

There is, however, one factor that should not be forgotten. Next week, the Attorney General will likely announce his intention to charge Netanyahu. Most people still believe the alleged improprieties Netanyahu of which he has been only involve cigars and whiskey . When the public hears all of the charges delineated and the evidence that exists to support those charges, the gravity of those revelations might just have an impact on Netanyahu’s standing.

One last point about the Left-wing bloc. The great fear is that Meretz and/or the Labor Party will not get into the Knesset. This morning there was a call to merge the two lists and run together in the election. Meretz head, Tamar Zandberg said she would work all day to reach an understanding between the parties. Labor’s Stav Shaffir and Amir Peretz both called for the merger, but Avi Gabbay refused to go along. Gabbay, who inherited the Labor party with 23 Knesset seats, and today heads a party projected to receive eight seats, at best, vetoed the merger. Now, both parties may be on the verge of extinction, and risk taking any chance for the center-left to win along with them.

 

 

 

 

February 20 (24:00 IST)

Prime Minister Netanyahu canceled his trip to Russia to meet with President Putin. Instead, he spent his day working relentlessly to make sure the far-right party Otsma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party would merge with the Bayit HaYehudi (Jewish home party). The leadership of Otsma Yehudit is made up of staunch disciples of Rabbi Meir Kahane, who was banned from running for Knesset in 1988, because of his blatantly racist views. During that time, at the direction of Likud’s “leftist” Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, all members of the Likud got up and left the assembly hall any time Kahane spoke.

However, for Netanyahu, absolutely any maneuver is legitimate, as long as long as it increases his chances of winning the upcoming election — and in his mind, remaining out of jail. HaBayit HaYehudi was extremely reluctant to go ahead with the merger, but Netanyahu gave them no choice. Netanyahu bribed the Bayit HaYehudi, with the promise they would receive two ministerial positions, (including the Education Ministry, or something equivalent). In addition, Netanyahu agreed to place a member of the Bayit HaYehudi in the 28th position on the Likud party list, and then, allow that person to then move back to the Bayit HaYehudi after the election — Something that is completely unheard of, and is of questionable legality. The promises were “the carrot”; “the stick” was the threat that if the parties did not merge, the Bayit HaYehudi would bear responsibility for the victory of the Left in the election.

There was near complete silence from Likud members, regarding Netanyahu’s actions; those who did speak, merely said, “We must do everything we can to defeat the Left.”

Tzvi Hauser, a neighbor with whom I have had lengthy political discussions, who was a long-time Likud member, and served as the secretary of Netanyahu’s government earlier in the decade. Hauser is now number 8 on Gantz’s list.

In light of Netanyahu’s coerced matchmaking between the Bayit HaYehudi and Otzma Yehudit, said tonight:

“The marginal fringes of Israeli society are being seated in the halls of government. This day, on which Netanyahu gave legitimacy to the racist fringes of Israeli society, will be remembered as an eternal disgrace in the history of the Likud, and will not be erased.”

 

Meanwhile, at the center of the political spectrum, negotiations between Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid continue. Today’s merger on the right-wing makes it more likely the pair will reach an agreement by tomorrow night’s deadline. In parallel, Orly Levy-Abekasis has gotten tired of waiting for Gantz and announced she will run alone.

One personal anecdote …
At my local coffee shop this morning one of the patrons said — he would never vote for Gantz, because Gantz is “a leftist”. I asked him what does it mean to be “a leftist”?— He, of course, could not answer.

 

February 19 (24:00 IST)

 

We are in what is called “money time” in Israeli politics, i.e., the last 48 hours for the political parties to finalize their Knesset lists, and decide whether or not to merge. Tonight, Avi Gabbay announced he had persuaded General Tal Russo to join the Labor list, and that Russo would receive the #2 spot. Russo had been a well-regarded commander of the Southern Command. While the other members of Labor’s list all claimed how happy they were, most would have preferred not being bumped down one position in favor of the General. Although Russo is highly respected, he is not known widely enough to bring many additional votes to Labor. If Gabbay truly cared about the state of the party, he should have swallowed his pride and asked Tzipi Livni to return. However, no doubt, he is thinking about the day after the election, when the knives will presumably come out against him.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu has been making every effort to prevail upon the other right-wing parties to allow in the far-right parties to their lists. Netanyahu is pressuring these parties so extensively that he publicly called on all of the smaller right-wing lists to merge; warning them if they did not, they would not meet the minimum threshold of votes to required to get into the Knesset. The Prime Minister went as far as to say if they did not act quickly and unite before the deadline, their votes would be wasted and they would be responsible for bringing the left-wing to power.

Still, the big question remains what will happen between Gantz, Lapid, and Orly Levy-Abekasis. All three claim they each still want to merge. We will know the final outcome in 48 hours. I am not surprised that this question remains unresolved until now. It was always clear they would wait until the very last possible moment to announce their intentions, so as not to allow Netanyahu time to make a counter move.

Finally, tonight Gantz announced his party’s list. The overall list itself was a rather uninteresting collection of competent people, few with any apparent charisma, and a limited set of understandings that unite them — other than their steadfast belief the time has come for Netanyahu to exit the public scene. Speaking out of character, mild-mannered, officer and gentleman Benny Gantz viciously attacked Netanyahu tonight. After withstanding a week of continued attacks without countering, Gantz finally returned fire. Gantz disparaged Netanyahu for leaving the country to improve his English and parade around on the cocktail circuit, while Gantz remained behind in the bunkers with his soldiers. Gantz followed that up, saying while he was on secret missions all over the Middle East, Netanyahu was fighting for Israel by going from makeup room — to — makeup room preparing for his TV appearances.

The next two months are going to be extremely loud and dirty!

 

 

February 18 (23:30)

 

The lead political story today was the decision of Tzipi Livni not to run in the upcoming election. All of the polls showed her not getting enough votes to pass the threshold. She was unable to combine with any of the other lists after Gabbi disbanded her joint list with Labor. Livni took the only responsible decision she could, fearing that if she ran votes cast for her party would be lost to the center-left if she did not pass the threshold.

Tonight Yesh Atid announced its Knesset list, accompanied by great fanfare. It should be noted that Yesh Atid’s list is not the result of any election, but rather, the unilateral decision of the party’s leader, Yair Lapid. At the event, Lapid spoke publicly about a proposed merger with Benny Gantz’s party, stating the possibility of a union was still on the table, however, he is still waiting to receive answers to questions regarding Gantz’s party’s principles. Lapid claimed that once he receives definitive answers to the larger ideological stances, he and Gantz could get into a room and stay until they agreed on the “small matters” of who would be first on the party list and whether there would be rotation between the two in the position of Prime Minister. Lapid’s statement might be the result of him not wanting to be held responsible for diluting the power of the centrist parties, by running in separate party lists. However, we will have wait to see.

In the meantime, there have been rumors all day that Gantz and Orly Levy-Abekasis have reached an agreement. If true, for arcane legal reasons, that agreement would probably preclude a union with Lapid’s party. With 48 hours to go until the deadline for the submission of final Knesset lists, much can still happen.

On the right, Netanyahu is trying his best to get the far-right (Kahanist) Otzma party to join with the Bayit Hayehudi list. Netanyahu went as far as calling Chaim Smotritch, MK Bezalel Smotritch’s father to attempt to convince him to persuade his son to include the Otzma party as part of the Bayit Hayehudi list. Netanyahu has been obsessed about the possibility of the right-wing losing votes, because several of their parties may not get enough votes to cross the minimum threshold.

The attacks on Gantz by the Likud continue to intensify. The newest ad claims Gantz conspired with President Obama, behind Netanyahu’s back, to arrange an Israeli pull-out from the West Bank. Yaalon, who was Defense Minister at the time of the claim, dismissed it as a bold-faced lie. There is something to the old adage, i.e., the bigger the lie, the greater likelihood it will be believed. Clearly, some of the Likud propaganda against Gantz has taken hold — especially the questioning of how can someone who never passed a law in the Knesset become Prime Minister. None of Netanyahu’s rivals seem to have learned anything from American politics. In order to succeed, a candidate’s war room must be staffed 24/7, ready to respond to every attack.

Meanwhile, the damage inflicted by newly minted Foreign Minister Katz yesterday continues to reverberate. Katz quoted a 30-year-old statement of former Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, in which he declared the Polish people absorbed antisemitism directly from their mothers' milk. The Polish government was incensed and canceled their participation in tomorrows Israeli summit, which has now been canceled. The Polish government has gone as far as to threaten to downgrade their diplomat relations with Israel.

Finally, it should be noted that there were confrontations on the Gaza border last night. One soldier was wounded, an American oleh from Los Angeles, named Yoadd Zaguri, who serves as infantryman in the army’s Nachal Brigade, as a lone soldier. Zaguri’s wounds, while serious, are not life-threatening, and he is expected to make a full recovery.

 

February 17 (24:00 IST )

 

The first news of the day was the announcement that Prime Minister Netanyahu had finally appointed an interim Foreign Minister. It was not the deputy Foreign Minister MK Tzipi Chotoveli, but rather, Minister of Transportation, and Minister of Intelligence, MK Yisrael Katz — i.e. the Minister responsible for supervising completion of the railroad from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem on time (which is years late and still not done). Why did Netanyahu appoint Katz? Because Katz came in #2 in the Likud primary. Netanyahu wants to ensure his support in the Likud, in the event he is indicted.

Katz dove right into his new job, working to manage the controversy caused by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s remarks that the Polish people had also participated in the Holocaust (a historical fact). Prime Minister Netanyahu’s remarks caused Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to cancel his participation in the Visegrad Group summit, soon to take place here in Israel. Morawiecki is sending a lower level delegation. When asked about the turn of events, Katz quoted Prime Minister Shamir, who famously stated the Poles drank antisemitism from their mother's milk. Sounds like a good start as Israel’s temporary chief diplomat.

Today, the cabinet decided to implement a law that had not been implemented to date. This law allows the government to subtract the amount of money the Palestinian Authority pays terrorists and their families from the money it collects as port taxes on behalf of the Authority. While everyone agrees that paying the families of terrorists is abhorrent, the reason the law had not been enforced until now, was the fear that this course of action, combined with the recent ending of US support, would bring about a collapse of the Palestinian Authority. Tonight, when the Minister of Justice and the Minister of Transportation were each asked if they were concerned the government’s decision would lead to the PA’s collapse, they both said that the outcome was up to Abu Mazen. Apparently, the timing of this action has something to do with the upcoming election here.

Israel Resilience party chairman Benny Gantz spoke at the Munich Security Conference today. While his English is not as fluent, and as fluidly American-sounding as Benjamin Netanyahu, Gantz delivered a good speech — and more than anything, it reminded me of the addresses Prime Minister Rabin used to give. It was an admirable, solid “A–” speech. Over the weekend, the head of the Histradrut (Labor Union), Avi Nisenkorn joined Gantz’s party. It is not clear that Nisenkorn joining in helps Gantz. However, the fact that Nisenkorn could run for Knesset and at the same time continue to head the Histadrut seems very problematic, to say the least.

Israeli anchorwoman Oshrat Cutler gave a gift to the right-wing yesterday. While reporting on the story of a group of Haredi soldiers who have been charged with viciously beating their Palestinian prisoner (who had killed their team members), Cutler stated that — we send soldiers to the West Bank and they return animals. Both Bennett and Netanyahu immediately attacked her over her statement. Cutler has received so many death threats that she now has 24/7 protection.

Finally, a taxi driver story … I was talking to my driver last Thursday, on the way to the Axion Conference, in Jaffa. While discussing politics, the driver told me he was “a right-winger.” He then added a disclaimer that he was “not too-far-right,” after all, he went on to say, he believes in the Palestinians’ right to a state. He even thinks the Palestinians should get East Jerusalem. I looked at him a bit perplexed and asked him — What precisely makes you a right-winger? He replied that he has been always a right-winger. So, I asked him — Who on the right-wing says the things you believe in? He answered: Netanyahu. The driver went on to assert that Netanyahu is really a centrist and would never do anything too extreme.

Before I could figure out how to respond, we arrived at my destination.

 

 

February 14 (24:00 IST )

 

Meretz held its first ever party primary today. Until now, the Meretz Knesset list was determined by its central committee. Turnout for the Meretz vote was 83%, considerably higher than the 58% turnout for the Likud primary, or the 56% turnout for the Labor party primary. The top spots on the list went to three returning MKs: Ilan Gilon, Michal Rozin, Esawi Frej, along with one newcomer, renowned Druze educator, Ali Shalalha. Tamar Zandberg was not up for election, and will continue to head the list.

 

Meanwhile, on the other side of the political spectrum, the National Union Party and the Jewish Home Party have reached and signed an agreement to run together in a joint list. Polls showed that if these parties ran alone the outcome would be below the threshold. Prime Minister Netanyahu pressured them to run together, fearing the otherwise likely loss of votes on the right. Some of the latest polls show that two of Netanyahu’s current coalition members, (i.e., the Kulanu party, under Moshe Kachlon and the Israel Beiteinu, under Avigdor Lieberman) are in danger of falling below the threshold. If true, this could be a significant threat for Netanyahu plan to form a rightwing coaltion.

In other news tonight, Netanyahu leaked a tape of the closed door session at the Warsaw Conference. In the recordings, foreign ministers from multiple Gulf States can be heard stating that the threat posed by Iran is greater than the hazards of not reaching a solution to the Palestinian problem. Netanyahu was criticized for revealing the tape and embarrassing the Arab leaders, all for the sake of his re-election campaign.

 

In addition, today, while in Poland, Netanyahu went out of his way to mention Polish cooperation with the Germans during WWII — a line that was no doubt offered on the eve of elections, meant to assuage critics of the Prime Minister’s past conciliatory actions regarding Poland. However, making this statement, while on Polish soil, created a mini-crisis in Israel-Polish relations.

 

 

February 12 (21:50 IST)

Most of today’s political news focused on the impact of the successful Labor party primary yesterday. As predicted, tonight's polling showed that the primary had a clear positive affect on the party, whose projected numbers have gone from 5 seats to 8 seats, with those seats coming from Gantz, whose projections have dropped 3 seats. Meretz and Yesh Atid also went up slightly. As such, the total picture shows the Center-Left bloc is projected to receive 58 seats, compared to 62 seats projected for the Right-wing. This is the smallest gap between the political blocs so far in this election cycle.

Meanwhile, the chaos in the Likud continues, with initial recount numbers showing that not all the votes for Netanyahu’s rival Gideon Sa’ar had been counted. The recount continues. Stay tuned for a few suspense-filled days until the ballot discrepancy is resolved.

 

A minor controversy developed over the Attorney General’s order to Netanyahu to stop exploiting photos with soldiers in order to further his election campaign. The Attorney General’s order enforces an old rule. Yet, today, Netanyahu released a video clip making fun of the AG’s instruction, and then blatantly ignored the order, posting photos during a visit to a naval base.

 

 

February 11 (24:00 IST)

 

The Labor Party held its primary today. For a party that has been widely written off, they garnered a relatively high turnout, with a great deal of enthusiasm. Labor’s primary went off without a hitch. The two winners of the night were Itzik Shmuli and Stav Shaffir. The pair were both leaders of the social protest movement eight years ago, and they came in number one and two, respectively.

Personally, ever since I interviewed Stav four years ago, she has been one of my favorites. Stav was the youngest member of the Knesset when she first entered. Now, she is all of 33 years old, compared to Shmuli who is 38. One of the two will likely be the next head of the Labor party. The two former leaders of the labor party, Shelly Yachimovich and Amir Peretz, came in next, followed by Meirav Michaeli. Next on the list is Omer Bar-Lev, the only person with substantive military experience (Bar-Lev commanded Sayeret Matkal). A new entry on the list is Ya-ya Fink, a religious, left-wing Jerusalemite, who made it into the first ten spots.

Of the top ten on the Labor list, five are women. This compares well with the Likud that only includes two women in the first ten. Four of the top five on Labor’s list are Sephardim, compared to the same two on the first ten in the Likud. Will these distinctions make any difference? It’s hard know. We will probably see the labor party rise in the polls, when the next set of results are published. Previous polls showed Labor with just 6 Knesset members.

In the meantime, there has been a great deal of confusion in the Likud. It turns out that in some precincts, Likud candidates received more votes than there were voters. Prime Minister Netanyahu has called for a recount of all the votes. There has been other fighting in the Likud. A number of Likud members (who are lower on the list) have challenged Netanyahu’s right to reserve spots for three people of his choice on the party list. Those placements would lower positions of the aforementioned Knesset candidates, and as a result, decrease their chances of getting into the Knesset.

 

 

February 7 (23:15 IST)

 

Channel 13 publishes their polling results every Thursday night. Tonight we learned a few things. The Likud was strengthened slightly by their primary. Likud gained two seats, however, that was expected. The news the last few days was only about the Likud. Second, and probably most importantly, Gantz’s new party has remained steady, despite the expectation of many he would lose support as time went on. The other important takeaway from tonight’s polling results is that Orly Levy’s party is projected to drop below the threshold of votes required, as is Tzipi Livni’s party.

A theoretical merger between Gantz and Lapid brings their combined projected seats to 36; i.e., they appear to be stronger together than apart. However, that same poll shows Meretz vanishing and the Labor party on the edge of disappearing. There is a great deal of talk about a union between Meretz and Labor, something that would make a great deal of sense, but which allegedly Gabbay refuses to discuss. If I were a conspiracy theorist, I would be convinced Gabbay was sent by some other party to destroy Labor — since he seems intent on doing so.

 

 

 

February 6 (22:40 IST)

 

The final results of the Likud primaries are in. Two things are clear from the outcome. First, the Likud decided not to reelect the mischief makers of the Knesset, like Oren Hazan. Second, Netanyahu’s most prominent defenders, David Amsalem and David Bitan, will be returning to the Knesset, but far down the list.

The number one pick of Likud voters was former prisoner of Zion Yuli Edelstein. Edelstein has been Speaker of the Knesset, and has done his best — against steep odds — to maintain the dignity of the Knesset and a certain level of statesmanship. Edelstein is also known for trying to stand up to Netanyahu. He is now number one on the Likud, that is, after Netanyahu. Gideon Sa’ar, who returned to the Knesset after a six-year absence to help bring up his kids, earned the number 4 spot, despite vigorous efforts of Netanyahu to stop him, by spreading conspiracy theories. Only one clear supporter of Netanyahu, Minister of Culture Miri Regev, made it into the top five spots on the list. The second half of the top ten spots only contained one additional strong Netanyahu supporter, and that is Yariv Levine.

Gantz has taken votes from everyone, and some parties are perilously close to dropping below the threshold (4 seats), where they will not be eligible to receive any Knesset representation. Those parties include: Shas, Meretz, Kulanu, Gesher, Bayit Hayehudi and Yisrael Beiteinu. Yesh Atid has fallen precipitously, as has what is left of the Labor party.

Former Mayor of Jerusalem Nir Barkat managed to land directly on the number 6 spot. His strong showing positions Barkat as a contender in any future leadership fight that will take place on the day after Netanyahu.

While the Likud has succeeded in creating a more distinguished list, diversity is not its name. There are only two women in the first ten spots, and just one more in the next ten. The list is also overwhelmingly Ashkenazi. While this probably will not affect the results of the coming election, which is all about Netanyahu — this choice of leadership probably does not bode well for the future of the Likud.

Here are the top ten MKs on the Likud List:

1. Yuli Edelstein
2. Yisrael Katz
3. Gilad Erdan
4. Gideon Saar
5. Miri Regev
6. Yoav Galant
7. Yariv Levin
8. Nir Barkat
9. Gila Gamliel
10. Avi Dichter

 

 

February 3 (22:40 IST)

The Likud primary, scheduled to take place in two days, has been dominating the Israeli election scene this week. The so-called “knives” are out, with the exposure of a secret list, i.e., revealing the people Netanyahu favors and those he opposes. At the top of “the Prime Minister’s blacklist” is former Education Minister Gideon Sa’ar. In an almost Shakespearian-style scheme, Netanyahu continues to claim Sa’ar is plotting against him. Netanyahu has been working overtime to make sure Sa’ar is not picked as the number 2 or 3 in the Likud. The person who earns the number 2 spot is more critical than usual. Given the potential (albeit unlikely situation) that Netanyahu chooses to resign, then whoever lands the number 2 position would become the new head of the Likud.

On Friday, the Attorney General formally answered Netanyahu’s lawyers’ petition, stating that he would not wait until after the election to announce whether he intends to indict Netanyahu. However, the AG said he would wait two weeks to give Netanyahu a chance to petition the High Court to stop him from making announcement before the election.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu has been in full-court press mode, attacking the Attorney General “for giving in the left-wing and the media”. Netanyahu has decided that even the new right leaning Channel 20 is not the right place to give interviews (as they have at least some minimum of journalist integrity). Therefore, he has started “Likud TV” to deliver the news as he sees it. He has also begun his general election campaign with giant posters of him with Trump. Israelis still love Trump, although some are beginning to realize that being “all in” with Trump may be a bit of a problem.

 

The runt of what is left of the Jewish Home Party has picked the former chief Rabbi of the IDF, Rafi Peretz as its new leader. Peretz, a former pilot, should make an interesting choice to head a party, which at the moment is struggling to meet the minimum threshold for representation in the Knesset.

 

 

 

Janaury 30 (11:05 IST)

 

It’s been 24 hours since Benny Gantz gave his first campaign speech. Gantz’s campaign launch has dominated Israeli media and reactions have been overwhelmingly positive. Every commentators who warned that Gantz would “never live up to expectations” was forced to eat their hat today. As the leading political correspondent on Channel 13 (formerly channel 10) said tonight: “I hope you erased everything I said yesterday”.

Last week, I could have honestly said that almost no one I knew had any idea who they planned to vote for. Today I can say that that has changed. Nearly everyone — at least here in Tel Aviv — is going to vote for Gantz. As rumors of tonight's opinion polls began to circulate, the feeling that something had changed began to grow. This evening Channel 13 published its polling results and Gantz has gone from 12 to 24 seats in one day. Moreover, when those surveyed were asked who would you prefer to be Prime Minister, Gantz was tied with Netanyahu. This is first time anyone other than Netanyahu has received such strong poll numbers, since Barak beat Netanyahu.

Gantz has taken votes from everyone, and some parties are perilously close to dropping below the threshold (4 seats), where they will not be eligible to receive any Knesset representation. Those parties include: Shas, Meretz, Kulanu, Gesher, Bayit Hayehudi and Yisrael Beiteinu. Yesh Atid has fallen precipitously, as has what is left of the Labor party.

The rumors are that Gesher, led by Orly Levy-Abecasis will likely be the next to join Gantz. If Gesher does join, the left-center bloc will have more seats than the right bloc. Lapid will have to decide if he is going down in defeat, or joining Gantz as number 2 or 3.

Finally, Meretz and Labor are going to have to merge, if not, one or both are in danger of being swept away. As a friend whose view are clearly to the left of Gantz said today, she will vote for Gantz, because what Israel needs more than anything else at this moment is a leader with values. She, and my guess everyone who does not love Netanyahu, or is not a hard-right or religious ideologue will likely to move to support Gantz in the coming days. It should be noted that Tzipi Livni’s party does not reach the needed threshold.

The following is the Channel 13 poll. This is the first poll I have placed on the site, since until now I believed they were meaningless. There are many different polls out, all showing results in the same direction with slightly different numbers. Throughout this election cycle, I will present only surveys from Channel 13, keeping the same source each time, since what counts from here on in is trends.

 

 

January 29 (22:15 IST)

 

Benny Gantz spoke tonight, and he may have successfully “threaded the needle” — attacking Netanyahu, seeming strong on defense, and yet still leaving the door open for negotiating toward peace. In his speech, Gantz made it clear he was worried about the state of the country. One of his most potent lines was when his assertion: “The current government acts like a French monarchy. It does not see that state belongs to the people. No leader is a king. The country belongs to all of the people.”

For those who kept questioning in advance whether Gantz wants to be Prime Minister or Defense Minister in a Netanyahu government, Gantz answered by thanking Bibi for ten years of service and saying the time has come for the Prime Minister to retire. Furthermore, Gantz stated in no uncertain terms that it is absurd to have a government led by a man who may have an indictment against him, and he would do all in his power to stop that from happening.

Gantz came across as strong on defense. He warned the leaders of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas not to test him, going as far as reminding them we once practiced targeted assassination and could do so again.

On the other hand, Gantz stated emphatically that he would do all he could to reach peace. He reminded everyone that Begin negotiated peace, Rabin negotiated peace, and even Netanyahu gave his famous Bar Ilan address and returned most of Hebron to the Palestinians. He said, however, that the Golan Heights will always be part of Israel and that the Jordan River would be the security border of Israel. Gantz went on to say that reaching peace with the Palestinians will be difficult, and may not be attainable. If that is the case, he said he would not allow the millions of the Palestinians living on the other side of the wall to endanger the democratic Jewish majority of the state of Israel.

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Before delivering the speech, Gantz signed an agreement to run in partnership with Bogie Ya’alon. Ya’alon, former Chief of Staff and Defense Minister, has joined Gantz, along with two other former supporters of Netanyahu — the columnist Yoaz Hendel and Tzvi Hauser, who previously served as the cabinet secretary, under Netanyahu. I know the later rather well, and to say his assessment of the Prime Minister is negative is an understatement, though he still maintains ideological positions that are also clearly to the right-of-center.

Both the Likud and the New Right party immediately renewed their attacks on Gantz, claiming regardless of what he says or does, Gantz is a “Leftist.” That is going to be a hard label to make stick, as Gantz directly aligns with the mainstream of the Israeli public — i.e. 58% who believe in a two state solution; while only 34% think we can reach a solution now.

Gantz promised additional partnerships and affiliations. He is trying to get Orly Levy-Abecasis to join him and run jointly. The big open question is going to be Lapid. I think he may have no choice but to put aside his ego and join Gantz. Lapid claimed tonight at the INSS conference that the public will not know until an hour before the deadline whether or not he is going to come together with another party. As someone who has a nostalgic feeling for the Labor party — and who likes Shelli Yachimovich, Merav Michaeli, and Stav Shaffir — I have to say that even more than before, Labor looks like a sinking ship. I hope they get off in time.

 

 

 

 

 

January 28th (10:20 ICT)

 

The only serious election campaigning going on at the moment is for the Likud primaries. Likud candidates are all attempting to outdo each other by adopting the most right-wing stances possible and showing their strongest support for Netanyahu in the face of a potential indictment. The primary season in Israel, at least on the Right-wing, is similar to the Republican primaries, i.e., it pushes potential candidates ever further to the extreme. Many Likud candidates, including the current speaker of the Knesset, have promised that annexation of the West Bank would be their first priority. The only problem is that according to a survey released today by the INSS (Institute for National Security Studies) only 9% of Israelis support annexation of the entire West Bank, while 16% favor annexing the Jewish settlement blocs.

Although the Likud primaries have gotten all of the coverage, primary campaigns are also taking place in Meretz and the labor party. The Labor party suffered another set back today, when its leading Reserve General quit, saying he could no longer support Avi Gabbay.

In the meantime, a poll came out, in which 87% of Arab Israelis surveyed said they wanted parties that represented them to be in the government. This is entirely the opposite of what the parties themselves have been saying. MK Ahmad Tibi, head of the Ta’al party, and probably the most famous Arab-Israel politician, said he could support a government from outside, but could never sit in a government. As a result, observers believe Meretz might receive a surprising, and substantial boost from the Arab sector.

It should be noted the Bayit HaYehudi party has decided to eliminate its primaries. A committee composed mostly of rabbis will decide who should run for what is left of the once venerable Mafdal (National Religious party).

Finally, everyone is waiting for tomorrow (Tuesday) night, when Benny Gantz is scheduled to give his first public speech. Advance details are sketchy, but his advisors say the speech will be sharp in its criticism, but still respectful. In the meantime, his party (Resilience for Israel) has released their jingle in a video (see below) — “There’s no more ‘right’ or ‘left,’ there is only Israel above all else.”

 

 

 

אין יותר ימין או שמאל. בקרוב בפלייליסט. האזינו.#BG19 pic.twitter.com/ngCPHJP8dx

— בני גנץ - Benny Gantz (@gantzbe) January 28, 2019

 

 

Primer on Israel Elections

January 23 (23:10 IST)

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu engaged in a full-frontal-assault on the media tonight. Netanyahu posted a video on his FaceBook page asserting that Channel 12 and 13 are intent on pushing him out of office. Over the course of the past few days, there have been leaks of selections from the diary kept by Nir Chefetz, former media advisor and one of his closest confidant, who is now a State Witness. Excerpts of the journal have been presented on TV news, chronicling a long list of immoral and illegal activities allegedly perpetrated the Netanyahu’s. Remaining on the defensive, Netanyahu’s lawyers have demanded the Attorney General investigate who leaked the diary excerpts, stating that releasing material from a criminal investigation is itself a crime that carries a three year term.

A little bit of history. In 1993, when Netanyahu ran to lead the Likud Party, for the first time, he claimed his wife had been threatened that a secret recording relating to an affair he had been carrying on would be released, if he did not withdraw from the race. Netanyahu went on to admit to the affair, saying the matter was between him and his wife alone, and insinuating his rivals (led by David Levy) was responsible for the threat. Observers today believe there never was any such tape. Netanyahu went on to win the leadership fight.

 

 

 

 

Today, the Russian Foreign Ministry called for an end to Israeli attacks in Syria. Russian Ambassador to Israel Anatoly Viktorov stated on i24News: “The Israeli Ministry of Defense now makes immediate comments on any strikes at a very, very high level — and in our mind, this is very much connected to the election campaign” Viktorov said, referring to Israel’s April 9 vote.

Meanwhile, Benny Gantz, head of the new “Israel’s Resilience” Party announced he would break his silence and give a major address next Tuesday evening. The fateful question remains whether Gantz will gain or lose supporters after the speech.

The cabinet tonight approved the transfer of the Qatari money to Hamas in Gaza. The fear of a war before the election, was greater than the fear of looking weak in the face of Hamas.

 

 

Janauary 22, 2019 (23:45 ICT)

 

We are theoretically in the middle of a political campaign, but unfortunately, the news in Israel has been dominated by military confrontations, in both the North and the South. In the North, Israel attacked Iranian position in Syria near the Damascus Airport on Sunday morning. This mission took place while Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Chad. For the second time in recent memory, in contrast to the hundreds of other attacks Israel has carried out in Syria, the government admitted it had indeed attacked. A few hours later, the Iranians responded by launching a large surface-to-surface missile aimed at the thousands of Israeli skiers on Mt. Hermon. The Iranian missile was downed by Iron Dome — representing the first time Iron Dome has been used against a larger rocket. On Sunday night, Israel retaliated by launching a large-scale series of attacks on Iranian positions in Syria, apparently killing some Iranians. When Syrian missile batteries tried to intervene, they were promptly destroyed.

The question asked by many commentators is why Israel has started publicly taking responsibility for these attacks in Syria. This, after years of never publicly acknowledging any attack had been executed. The downside of being public is that it forces the other side to respond — even if they do not really want to. No real explanation has been given for these sudden affirmations, other than the fact these admissions serve the short-term political interests of the Prime Minister to show what we are doing; to prove “We are Strong.”

Our attacks on the Iranians in Syria are now being called — “the war between the wars”.

In the meantime, in the South, there were two incidents along the border today. In the morning, the occurrence ended without any casualties on either side. This evening, an IDF officer was lightly wounded by sniper fire. Israel retaliated by attacking a Hamas position, killing at least one Hamas operator. These events have been happening against the background of regular cash payments Israel has allowed Qatar to make to Hamas in Gaza, in order to pay salaries. The Netanyahu government has been widely criticized for allowing a payoff to Hamas, in return for quiet. The next payment was supposed to happen earlier in the week, but was delayed. Tonight, word is that Netanyahu has decided to stop the payments and Hamas has responded with a failed missile launch. Israel responded to that launch with air raids on Hamas targets in the Northern Gaza Strip.

Finally, yesterday, Netanyahu’s lawyers met with the Attorney General to try to persuade him to hold off with his recommendation on whether or not to indict the Prime Minister until after the election — claiming it would be unfair, as if the AG’s recommendation is indeed to indict, they would not have time to appeal that decision before the election. Netanyahu’s lawyers are, of course, ignoring the fact it was Netanyahu who rushed to have early elections, when it became clear the Attorney General was most likely going to recommend indictment. Recent polls show that the Likud would lose 3—4 seats, if the AG indeed makes a recommendation to indict Netanyahu before the election. However, that does not seem to be Netanyahu’s real fear. According to many, after the election, and before the President could appoint Netanyahu to form a coalition, it is possible that a law suit would be brought to the Supreme Court, requesting it to bar the President from naming Netanyahu the one to put together the government. Since during the aforementioned period, Netanyahu would only be acting Prime Minister, and the law that states a Prime Minister can stay in office until a final conviction would not apply. As a result, such a suit might be successful.

 

 

January 18, 2019

 

The party led by former IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz announced its election slogan this week. It is: “Israel Comes First”. To American observers, it seems very close to the Trump slogan (America First), but in Gantz’s case, it seems his intended message is different. Gantz stated he means that Israel should come first, before personal needs. This is a subtle dig at Netanyahu. His party’s slogan was announced in a 17-second video of Gantz speaking. At the end, Gantz attempted a bit of humor by saying, “Perhaps I said a little too much.” Gantz is continually being attacked by Likud members; sometimes for his silence and other times for his war record. Earlier this week Gantz was attacked as “a leftist,” for agreeing with Druze IDF veterans that the Nation-State Law must be changed. Yair Lapid agrees with Gantz regarding the Nation-State Law. The big question everyone is asking is whether the Center-Left parties can unite. In an interview on Thursday night, Lapid was asked about whether his party would combine with Tzipi Livni. Lapid called Livni “a good friend, but too far left for his centrist party.” However, when pushed about his views, it would take a microscope to find the difference between the opinions of Livni and Lapid when it comes to the conflict. One of the unreported statement Lapid made in his Channel 13 interview was that the key to combining lists was “to know with whom, and most importantly, when [to combine]. If the Center-Right has any idea what they are doing, they will wait until the very last moment to announce their combination configuration, i.e., too late for the Netanyahu to respond effectively.

The biggest news this week most likely took place in the courtroom. The Head of the Israeli Bar was arrested for exchanging judgeships for sex. The critical political factor in this is that Efi Naveh, the head of the Bar Association, has played the vital role in Justice Minister Shaked’s campaign to remake the courts. Until Naveh the head of the bar had almost always agreed with the judges on the committee regarding the nomination of judges. Naveh has instead created a close alliance with Shaked. Naveh has had a less than sterling reputation for a while, and the fact that the Justice Minister worked so closely with him, will no doubt, at the very least, negatively impact her reputation for good judgment.

Finally, Netanyahu’s lawyers are trying desperately to convince the Attorney General not to announce the indictment of their client (pending appeal) before the elections. The AG’s announcement is expected next month, and most in the legal profession agree that allowing Israelis to go to the polls without knowing the charges and the evidence would cause more significant damage to the democratic system than announcing the charges before the election, despite the potential lack of time for Netanyahu to mount his appeal .

 

 

 

 

January 14, 2019

 

There were two main political events in Israel today. First, Benny Gantz made a statement. At a planned meeting with representatives of the Druze community who are demanding that the Nation-State Law passed by the last government be amended, Gantz came out and stated his support for their demands. Gantz added he would do everything he could to change the law. The change the Druze want, and with which most Israelis agree, is to explicitly state that all citizens of Israel will have equal rights.

Within less than two minutes, the New Right party (MKs Bennett and Shaked) already attacked Gantz, with the assertion he is a “leftist”. Before long, a parade of Knesset members from the Likud took to the air and to Twitter to also denounce Gantz as a “leftist”. The Likud sees Gantz as the primary challenger to Netanyahu. [See Below]

 

כשהליכודניקים עושים לגנץ את הקמפיין. רץ בווטסאפ pic.twitter.com/WenxIIpbgx

— Tal Shalev (@talshalev1) January 14, 2019

 

Second, in the evening, the National Union Party, part of the Jewish Home Party, elected Bezalel Smotrich as its new leader, defeating a much older Uri Ariel. Smotrich, best known for his racist comments about Arabs, is telegenic. However, he makes many of members of Likud seem liberal by comparison. With Bennett and Shaked gone from the Jewish Home Party, Smotrich is likely to demand to be first on the joint list, a demand to which the weakened Jewish Home party may be forced to accede.

 

January 13, 2019

 

It has been a relatively quiet few days in the Israeli election campaign. Most of the energy seems to be going to the primary campaigns in Likud, Labor, and Meretz. The current campaign in Labor looks very much like rearranging the chairs on the Titanic. On Friday, Tal Schneider wrote about the attempts until now to create a center-left bloc. According to Schneider’s report, Gabbay was the major impediment to any merger efforts, insisting that he had to head the unified party.

If Gabbay continues to lead the Labor party, and they do not combine with another party, I would be surprised if they make it into the Knesset. In the meantime, there are reports that many of the current members of the Knesset — especially the young, popular ones are negotiating with either Livni or Gantz to join their parties. Today, there have been reports that Livni and Lapid are in advanced talks to join forces. The parties all have a month to finalize their lists and begin the actual election campaign. No one has any reason to announce their actual intentions until the last moment.

Meanwhile, at the unofficial Likud convention held in Eilat this weekend, everyone competed over who could be more supportive of Netanyahu. Publicly, there was near unanimity that Netanyahu should not have to step down as Prime Minister until his final appeal is held and he literally has to report to jail.

 

There was a strange event that took place during the last 24 hours. After a clear policy of nearly never taking credit for attacks in Syria,outgoing IDF Chief of Staff Eisenkot confirmed we hit Syria hundreds of times over the course of the past few years, in service of stopping Iran from turning Syria into a forward base. Then, today, Netanyahu confirmed that the attack on Friday night around Damascus was carried out by Israel. Some commentators explained the change in policy, asserting they believe these declarations were publicized make it clear to the Iranians that we were determined to stop them. Moreover, Commentators maintained they are certain the notifications were not motivated by Netanyahu's political needs …

 

 

January 7, 2019

 

Today, the political system was still recovering from the “dramatic announcement” made by Prime Minister Netanyahu last night. While Likud spokesman all repeated the same talking points, their words rang hollow to most. Outside the Likud, there were rare unanimity that last night’s performance was a mistake. However, initial polls show that at least among Likud members Netanyahu has achieved his goal — for the moment. 79% of Likud members think the Prime Minister has been treated unfairly in the investigations against him. Though, in the nation as a whole, only 33% of the people believe Netanyahu was justified in his complaints last night. Moreover, only 19% of the country agreed with the Prime Minister’s assertion that he had made a “dramatic announcement”.

A poll presented tonight by Channel 10 should worry Netanyahu. When asked directly whether they thought Netanyahu or Benny Gantz was better suited to be Prime Minister, while Netanyahu remains ahead, it is only by a margin of 42-39%. According to Israeli observers that gap the closest anyone has come in a head-to-head poll with Netanyahu in ten years. In the same poll, when asked about Yair Lapid as a contender, Netanyahu retains a 15 point lead.

In other news, Ahmad Tibi announced that his party, the Arab Movement for Renewal, would run separately in the election, not as part of the Joint Arab List. Tibi has always been the most popular member of the list, but Hadash has always been the leading party in the Arab sector. Observers believe that this might be a negotiating tactic for Tibi to obtain the first place on the Joint List ballot.

 

January 7, 2019

 

The one major event of the day was a "dramatic" announcement by Prime Minister Netanyahu. The announcement was a defense in his criminal cases and was largely panned. See More

 

January 3, 2019

 

The most significant development of the day was a video that Prime Minister Netanyahu posted warning that the Attorney General should not make his recommendations on whether to indict since there will not be enough time for him to respond to the indictment. The same day the head of coalition Dudi Amsalem warned that millions would see an attempt to indict Netanyahu as violation of democratic norms and would not accept it. This was one statement to far and the Attorney General responded that he would not be intimidated. The only thing that will inform his decision is the law. The claim is of course absurd since it was Netanyahu who push for early elections hoping that they would take place before the indictment. He has no doubt been surprised by the rapid work that the Prosecutors and the Attorney General have been doing. What was expected to take a year not looks like it may take at most two months. Other news is the continued chaos in the Labor Party, with a number of Labor Knesset member now calling for Gabbay’s ouster. Its not clear that they will able to do it, but many believe in its current path the Labor Party his headed for oblivion.

 

 

January 2, 2019

Compared to the last few days, today’s events on the Israeli election scene were a rather tame. Bogie Ya’alon announced the name of his new party — “TELEM”. This is the same acronym as a short-lived party by another former Defense Minister, Moshe Dayan. While the letters are the same, the meaning of the acronym chose by Ya’alon is slightly different from the one picked by Dayan. Ya’alon’s TELEM stands for “T’nua Leumit Mamlachteet,” which translates as “National Statesmanlike Movement” — in keeping with Ya’alon’s mission to “put the country back on the right track.”

 

In the meantime, ultra-right-wing journalist Caroline Glick, who writes for the Jerusalem Post and Brietbart has joined the New Right party of MKs Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett.

Finally, tonight there are reports that Shas is giving consideration to running together with the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox parties. This will undoubtedly be a difficult decision for the head of Shas Arye Deri. On one hand, he fears Shas might drop below the required threshold; on the other hand, many people who vote for Shas do so because it is a Sephardi party and are unlikely to vote for a joint-list with Ashkenazi haredim.

January 1, 2019

 

It was another remarkable day in Israeli politics today. No one seemed more surprised than opposition head MK Tzipi Livni when she was fired on live TV by Avi Gabbay, head of the Labor Party. Livni, who heads the separate HaT’nua party entered into a partnership with the Labor Party, when it was led by Bougie Herzog before the last election. While Livni and Gabbay never got along, Gabby’s bombshell was shocking and seen by many as a sexist act. This came the day after a similar partnership between Yoav Galant and Moshe Kahlon was ended last night in a dignified manner. Labor’s popularity has been plummeting under Gabbay. I cannot believe that today's abrupt announcement will do anything but further erode whatever support Labor has left. I would not be shocked to see the Labor Party that once ruled the country dropping below the threshold required to enter the Knesset. The question that remains is where will Livni end up. Here party will received the public financing appropriate for a party with six current Knesset seats in the upcoming election. One could see a scenario where Ehud Barak joins her party, perhaps as its head, and then at the last moment, they enter into an agreement with Benny Gantz. Parties have until the February 28th to announce any agreements of this kind. So as of now, anything could still happen.

 

On the legal front, there are an increasing number of reports that attorney general Avichai Mandelblit is moving quickly and is planning to announce that he will indict Netanyahu pending a hearing before the elections. Lawyers for Netanyahu were quick to claim that such an action would violate democratic norms.

 

 

 

December 31, 2018

 

It’s New Year’s Eve and now there are 99 days before the upcoming election in Israel. Once, New Year’s Eve was barely celebrated in Israel. Today, many do mark the occasion, although tomorrow is a regular workday here. Prime Minister Netanyahu is far-off in Brazil, in honor of the inauguration of their new President, and will no doubt ring in the New Year there, before returning home with his wife and son. Netanyahu held one of his extremely rare press conferences — after canceling an even more unusual series of scheduled interviews with all the major Israeli channels. At the press conference, Netanyahu was repeatedly asked about the various charges which the State Prosecutor’s office has recommended he be charged, and whether he would resign if charged. Netanyahu made it very clear that if the Attorney General recommended he be indicted before he has an opportunity to respond to the charges against him, (owing to a strange element of Israeli law allows public officials to defend themselves before being charged), he would not resign. He was not clear regarding what he would do if he is in fact indicted after he presents his defense. Netanyahu also asserted that it would be wrong of Attorney General Mandelblit to publicly state he would charge him dependent on his indictment hearing (in Hebrew ‘Shee’mu’ah’), as that would constitute interference in the electoral process. Netanyahu has said time and time again that it is the voters who should decide whether he remains Prime Minister and not the Judicial system.

 

 

 

December 30, 2018

 

Today was “the day after” in Israeli politics, i.e., the day after Naftali Bennet and Ayelet Shaked surprisingly announced the creation of their new party last night. It turns out that the abrupt, albeit bold move had been planned for a while. The two purchased a shell party, named ‘Tzala״sh’ (citation) in August and had a friend holdit for them, while they waited for the opportunity to split from the Bayit Hayehudi. The Knesset officially approved the Bennett/Shaked separation from the old party, leaving behind a debt of NIS 23 million.

 

Today, the first polls are in, and they are literally all over the map. One poll shows the new party getting 14 mandates, another 10 mandates. In the two polls that are generally considered the most reliable, (Channel 10 and Channel 2), the New Right party received 8 seats and 6 seats, respectively. The problem for the right-wing is that according to the latest Channel 10 poll, without Shaked and Bennett, the Bayit Hayehudi does not pass the threshold of votes required to enter the Knesset. Furthermore, there are several other parties on the right-wing that are skirting very close to falling below the threshold. The Likud made one desperate attempt today to lower the required threshold, (the very threshold they raised in 2014 to hurt the Arab vote). However, since the Knesset had already officially disbanded, only items agreed to by both the Coalition and Opposition can be voted upon, and Zionist Union did not agree — so now, it’s too late to change the threshold required.

 

December 29, 2018

 

Saturday night brought a surprise to Israeli politics. Education Minister Naftali Bennett and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked announced they were leaving the party Bennet headed and starting a new party, named “HaYamin HaChadash” (meaning “The New Right”). The reason they gave for their decision was that HaBayit HaYehudi (the Jewish Home Party) had lost its power to influence the government. Bennett and Shaked claimed the new party would be an equal partnership between religious and non-religious, but would be definitively right-wing. They appear to have made this move for several additional reasons. First, the hope that if they form a party that is not only a religious, they will receive a larger number of votes. Second, both Shaked and Bennett felt stifled by having to answer the rabbis of the Religious Zionist movement. Neither were ever really at home in an exclusively religious party. Finally, with Bezalel Smotrich, an avowed racist, about to become head of the nationalist faction of their party, Bennett and Shaked felt they were in a partnership that could not be maintained. Some commentators suggested that the new party provided a method of getting away from the debt that their party currently has accrued. For both of them, the move is a risky strategy. Both are personally popular politicians, but without the base of the old National Religious Party and the settler movement it is an open question whether they will gather enough support to become a viable party. Furthermore, they will have to differentiate themselves from the Bayit Hayehudi on one side, and the Likud on the other. While everyone was focusing on the fragmentation of the center-left as the major problem of the upcoming elections, this latest shift shows that both sides of the political spectrum are entering the elections campaign very fragmented.

 

 

 

 

December 24-28 2018 - Week 1

The biggest question for this week remains — what will the left/center bloc look like. By the end of the week, General Benny Gantz had officially formed his new party, Hosen L’Yisrael (Israel Resilience Party). Who will be the members in this party is not yet known. What is clear is that Gantz’s goal is to steal votes from the Likud. How successful Gantz will be in that endeavor will determine the outcome of the upcoming election. Prime Minister Netanyahu will try to make this an election between right-wing and left-wing, but the meaning of those one polar factions has become so blurred, that in fact, the traditional differences between them have become less meaningful. If Gantz and others manage to shift the discussion to a face-off between those who are liberal and those who are illiberal, anything is possible. The rest of the left/center is in disarray, with everyone waiting to see who ultimately joins the Gantz party.

The second question is what will happen with the corruption cases against Prime Minister Netanyahu. It’s now clear that he moved forward the date of the election to have elections before the Attorney General could potentially indict him. Netanyahu had expected the process to take longer, but it is not. On Thursday, Yisrael Hayom, generally known as “Bibi’s newspaper” printed a headline story that warned Attorney General Mandelblit not to publish the results of the cases against Bibi before the elections. The paper initially claimed they were quoting Netanyahu, but when a furor broke out, Yisrael Hayom printed a new edition to change the citation of the quote to “sources in the Likud”. Recent polling suggests an overwhelming 62% of the Jewish population of the state does not want Netanyahu to continue serving as Prime Minister if indicted. Of course, because of our political system, if Netanyahu gets the votes from the balance of the parties, he could claim an overwhelming mandate.

 

 

About this Section- by Marc Schulman

This overall website started with a section on American Presidential elections — a subject that I have written about extensively and on which I have authored a book (“A History of American Presidential Elections: From George Washington to Barack Obama"). I have closely observed/participated in Israeli politics since 1975. In 1977 I voted in Israel for the first time, choosing the party that promised change, “Shinui”. I was in uniform the first time I voted, as I was the second time (while doing reserve duty), when I was probably one of the few people at that point to ever vote from outside Israel, as I was stationed on the Egyptian side of the border during the disengagement. Since then I received an academic understanding of Israeli politics, having been a student of the late Asher Arian, considered the dean of experts on Israeli elections. For the past more than seven years, I have once again had the chance to observe Israeli politics close-up, after returning to Israel following an absence. For the last five years, I have published a column in Newsweek called “Tel Aviv Diary”, which has given me closer access to people and events. Over the course of the coming months, I hope to chronicle and analyze the significant milestones and turning points in this year's Israeli elections, here on these pages. Some of these decisive junctures will find their way to Newsweek, and others will appear in our new Israel economic app, called DigitOne.