The Results of Israeli Election Are In Bibi Lost
Final results of Israel’s fourth consecutive election are now in … and once again, Prime Minister Netanyahu and his bloc failed to reach 61 seats, the magic number needed to form a governing coalition. The chairs on our “Titanic-like” political system have been slightly rearranged, but, alas, nothing has happened to change our course, or even indicate which way— if any — the ship of state is about to turn.
For the next two months, there will be Herculean attempts to form a government by both Netanyahu, and an agreed leader of the opposition. Netanyahu can only count on 52 confirmed supporters. To form a coalition Netanyahu must simultaneously gain support from the Islamic Ra’am party, while maintaining the backing of the National Religious Party, (elements of which are racist, ultra-Nationalists), who have already declared that such a marriage, in any form, is a non-starter. Netanyahu opponents need the support of at least one of the Arab Israeli parties, support that once had been a non-starter for some opposition parties, as well. However, with Netanyahu's faithful publicly professing their stamp of approval for such a government, if led by the Likud, new horizons have opened.
As the two before it, our need for a fourth election was caused by Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has been indicted, and whose trial on corruption charges is about to begin. This time around, the election was called for after Netanyahu failed to honor his coalition agreement with Benny Gantz, which included a rotation of the Prime Ministership halfway through the term of the agreement. It seems Netanyahu had no intention of honoring the agreement, and took advantage of a technical loophole in the deal that allowed him to remain interim Prime Minister, should the government fall over a technicality — In this case, Netanyahu resorted to a self-inflicted technicality, i.e., failure to pass a national budget. Not only did the government fail to pass a budget, but under Netanyahu’s directive, Finance Minister and Netanyahu loyalist Yisrael Katz did not even present a budget; thereby ensuring the government would fall and new elections would be called.
Netanyahu ran a multi-dimensional campaign, with four main goals. 1) Divide his primary opponents, and push one or two of them below the minimum electoral threshold needed to enter the Knesset, thus invalidating the ballots of those who voted for them. 2) Weaken the Arab Israel parties. 3) Ensure the parties on the far-right-wing united, so as not to lose any right-wing votes, and finally, 4) Convince Israelis that because he had successfully purchased vaccines for the whole country, he had done an excellent job of ending the Covid crisis, despite the many mistakes that had been made.
The opposition had two messages. First, that Netanyahu, despite doing an exceptional job bringing COVID-19 vaccines, the Prime Minister did a terrible job managing this crisis. As a sub-theme, Netanyahu’s dependency on the ultra-Orthodox led to his failure to enforce COVID regulations in that sector; being responsible in part for his inability to control the virus effectively. Second, most of the opposition highlighted the fact Netanyahu was about to stand trial for corruption, and their steadfastbelief that someone amidst a corruption trial should not be entrusted to run the country.
Netanyahu did a superb job ensuring no votes on the far right-wing were wasted. He engineered the joint run of three of the most outlying right-wing parties, engineering their victory and providing a seal of approval to homophobic parties, to a leader who was a follower of Meir Kahane and who kept a portrait of the Jewish terrorist who murdered Arabs in the Hebron mosque in his living room. For his short-term political gain, Netanyahu placed a permanent stain on the Israeli government, and perhaps ironically, blocked his one path to remain Prime Minister— as the National Religious party (with six seats) have unequivocally ruled out a coalition supported by the Arab Ra’am party, even indirectly.
Netanyahu also succeeded in his campaign to weaken the Arab voter turnout. First, the Prime Minister engaged in a romance with the Islamic Ra’am party leader, which resulted in them breaking from the Arab Joint List. Ra’am ran on a clear agenda of becoming a player in the next Israeli government, by offering their support to whoever would most help the Arab citizens. In addition, Netanyahu campaigned in Arab Israeli towns, pretending he had support there. As a result, turnout in the Arab Israeli sector was down, and the two Arab lists received a combined ten votes, down from the 15 seats earned by the full Joint List in the last election.
Moreover, Netanyahu was successful in dividing his opponents. Instead of two main political parties opposing him (as happened in the first three rounds); this time there were five parties to split the vote, and potentially fall below the electoral threshold for entering the Knesset. However, all of the smaller opposition parties made it in, but, (with the exception of the Arab parties) their total number of mandates were greater than when they had been combined. If one of the parties had failed to reach the minimum, Netanyahu would have been the hands-down winner. It was a sound plan, but it failed.
Finally, Netanyahu ran an extremely energetic campaign. He was the first to hold political rallies as the country emerged from lockdown. His public campaign was centered on the theme that the country was “returning to normal” thanks to the vaccines he supplied. Reality and timing certainly worked in Netanyahu’s favor — as magically, the week before the elections, almost all the Covid restrictions were removed. However, this time, thanks to the fact that over 50% of the population and nearly 80% of the adult population has been vaccinated, the number of Covid cases keeps dropping. There is no doubt that this helped Netanyahu. Although Israelis are renowned for their short political memory, opening of the economy only one week before the election appeared as a move too cynical for even the usually jaded Israelis. As a result, in the cities considered Likud strongholds, voting was down 6.6% from the last year’s election, compared to a nationwide average drop of 4.5%. Many Likud voters just stayed home.
So now, there are three possibilities …
The least likely is that Netanyahu manages to form a government with the support of the Arab Raam Party, despite the statement of his National Religious partners. Politics do indeed make strange bedfellows, yet, this may be a bridge just too far.
The second possibility is that, despite their wide ideological gaps, the opponents manage to unite and form a government with the support of one or both Arab parties. It is not clear who would be the leader in such a government, but it could potentially be, in no particular order: Yair Lapid, Naftali Bennet, Benny Gantz, or Gideon Saar. If that happens, historians will write one positive thing that emerged from Israel's two years of continuous elections, i.e., the final integration of Arab Israeli parties into the mainstream of Israeli politics.
There is, of course, another genuine option — that of a dreaded fifth election. It is undoubtedly a real possibility that no one will be able to form a government. If that were to happen, the next election would in all likelihood take place in November, and by election day Benny Gantz will be Prime Minister, based on the signed agreement that formed the current government.
It should be noted that the evidentiary part of Prime Minister Netanyahu's trial begins in 10 days. Three days a week, the prosecution will present their evidence against Netanyahu, and according to the law, Netanyahu will have to be in the courtroom for those days.
Historians of this chapter in Israel’s history will wonder how a Prime Minister who failed in four election campaigns, and was under indictment for a myriad of corruption charges maintain his party's support. The answer might be found in the response of one senior Likud Minister a few days before the elections to the quest of how Netanyahu could keep on going, despite all the challenges. The minister replied, “When God wants you to lead the Jewish people, you have no choice.” To many, Netanyahu has become a god-like figure. To most, however, based on the election result, he is a politician who may have done notable good, but whose expiration point has passed. The next three months will determine whose view is correct.
