November 19, 2012 -Day Six - Missile Fire Down, Ceasefire May Be Near Marc Schulman

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Israel Update
A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman

November 21, 2012 -Ceasefire After Bus Bombing

It has been a very eventful day, one that unfolded much as was expected- with the minor "distraction" of a bus bombing. President Obama had demanded that a ceasefire be reached in two days, and it probably would have. However the missile strike on Rishon Le'Zion demanded an Israeli response. That delayed matters by one day. Of course the bus bombing in the middle of the afternoon returned everyone to the awful days of the second Intifadah, when death could arrive at any moment from almost any direction-something much more terrifying than missiles– in which case there is both warning and defense available today.

In the end, today's bus bombing turned out to be almost amateur in nature. Thankfully there were no deaths. Only one person was seriously injured. Tonight a ceasefire was announced. It seems to be holding, for now.

Did the war achieve anything? I am very skeptical. For the first time Hamas was able to launch missiles at Tel Aviv. On the other hand, thanks to the success of Iron Dome they failed to hit Tel Aviv. The one success of the war is that now there can be no doubt that Israel will purchase the amount of Iron Dome systems it needs to fully protect the country.

A fuller retrospective analysis of the war that was, and what it means for the future will have to wait for a day that I was not awakened at 5 a. m. by my daughter to tell me she was all right. We return home early next week.

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