A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman
November 12, 2012 - Rockets in South and Mortars in the North
The impact of the Arab Spring (Islamic Winter) is being felt on all of Israel’s borders. First, we have the continued shelling of the South. Today was the third day in a row of continued missile fire on the Southern Israel. In the areas where there is an Iron Dome battery no damage has occurred. In other places there has been damage, but thankfully no casualties. Israel is blustering about attacking in retaliation. However, in the meantime Israel has limited its response, and has done very little counterattacking. Is Israel's inaction meant to lull the members of Hamas into making mistakes? or is Israel's relative silence because of a feeling that without a massive attack there is little we can do? It seems Israel's behavior has given Hamas a sense that they can do whatever they want. Hamas is allowing and taking part in the attacks on Israel since they believe Israel would not dare attack Gaza with Mohammed Morsi in power in Egypt. This may or not be correct. Clearly, at the moment, attacking Gaza is more difficult politically than before. Though to quote what Egyptian intelligence is telling Hamas: "Beware! Israel can only be pushed so far-especially in an election year". Our choices are limited. Since we have tried most things in the past- and they have not worked. There is talk of resuming the targeted assassination of the past. Though many in the military have been pointing out that previous attacks have only served to bring even worse people to power. We can invade Gaza again, but then what?
The situation on the Syrian border is better, but not by much. Today, for the second day in a row, Syrian shells landed inside Israel. Yesterday Israel fired a warning shot. Today they shot at the offending mortar battery. Its seems likely that the shells that fell on Israel were accidents. However, they are a symptom of what could happen after Assad falls. Its not clear who will come to power. However, two of the possible options- either an Islamist government or chaos- do not bode well for a border that has been quiet since Yom Kippur 1973.
Finally, the situation in Jordan is deteriorating. There are large weekly protests by Islamist in Jordan. These demonstrations are growing. While most are only calling for reform, many are starting to call for the overthrow of the Hashemite monarchy. It does not look good.
Meanwhile, in Egypt each group is trying to prove that they are the most religious. The Salafist in Egypt are calling for destroying the Pyramids and Sphinx, referring to them as "symbols of idol worship".