A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman
June 26, 2012- Muslim Brotherhood President of Egypt, More on Saturday's Demonstration
Israel's greatest long-term strategic nightmare seems to have occurred. The Muslim Brotherhood has now seated a president in Egypt. It is easy to project many bad scenarios. However, it''s also possible to be a Pollyanna and say that it's not so bad. There are a few reasons for optimism. The biggest factor fostering a positive outlook is the fact the new Egyptian President; Mohamed Morsy only won 51% of the vote (and that includes a partial 'protest' vote against the military.) Clearly, support for the Muslim Brotherhood has dropped in the past few months. However to put fact in perspective, keep in mind that Hitler never won the majority of the vote as well. Similarly, Hitler did not initially have the support of the military. Yet, that did not stop him from slowly gaining control of all aspects of the government.
The second reason for cautious optimism is the set of moderate statements that President Morsy made yesterday, in his first speech as president. Of course, Morsy was the candidate of the Muslim brotherhood-the same Muslim Brotherhood who declared, at first, that it would not run for the majority of seats in the parliament...The same Muslim Brotherhood which stated it would not run a candidate for president. Given these facts, is there any reason to believe Morsy’s words now?
There is one clear reason for optimism regarding Egypt, at least in the short term. Egypt is such an economic basket case that it will be almost impossible for Morsy to meet any of the expectations of the people. Thus, if Morsy allows a second free election, he is more likely than not to be re-elected.
Prime minister Netanyahu was faced with a difficult political choice: Raise taxes, or cut expenses. He was afraid of either. As a result, he decided today to increase the budget deficit from 1.5 percent to 3 percent.
Repercussions continue from Saturday night's demonstration. The police arrests and subsequent lying have clearly reinvigorated the protest movement, which now has clear targets. As a first-hand witness, I can say that the police were clearly in the wrong and have been lying about it.