A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman
August 13, 2012- Muslim Brotherhood Take Real Control in Egypt- Talk of War with Iran Continues- Bread Going Up
Israel seems stunned today as a result of the development yesterday in Egypt. It appears that (at least for the moment), the Muslim Brotherhood has taken complete control of the country. First development yesterday was Morsi's dismissal of Tantawi. Morsi also revoked the power that the military had given itself as a bulkwork against the Islamists. This was a breathtaking move. In a matter of weeks, Morsi has consolidated his power in a way that took Erdogan in Turkey almost a decade to achieve. Furthermore, Morsi is not even as popular as Erodwan. However, then again, (not to compare...despite the fact that liberal Egyptian Liberals have stated clearly that) Hitler was elected with less than 50% of the vote.
The events in Egypt, once again call into question the views of the experts out there. The experts were unanimous in stating that the Muslim Brotherhood would never want to rule directly. Everyone also believed them when they first claimed they would not run in the majority of the parliamentary districts. The experts also did not question when The Brotherhood stated they would not run a candidate for President. No expert disagreed when The Brotherhood stated they would respect the power of the military. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt have taken lying to a whole new realm. It would now seem that the terror attack on Egyptian and Israeli targets last week may have been the terror attack that had the greatest strategic impact in history-The complete takeover of a nation by the Mulsim Brotherhood.
Discussions about the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran continue to dominate the news here. It is clear that Netanyahu has not sold the Israeli public on the need for an attack. At the moment, 33% of Israelis are in favor, while 48% oppose- with the balance remaining undecided. It does not help that there continues to be broadcasts daily highlighting that the entire security military establishment is categorically against the action. Netanyahu has claimed, more than once in the past few days, that it is not up to the military to decide on the attack, but rather, the civilian leadership. Dani Ayalon, the Deputy Foreign Minister actually argued last night that there have been numerous cases of the civilian leadership overriding the military. He is correct, in a strict sense. However, to the best of my knowledge, in the history of both the US and Israel its always been the civilian leadership overriding the military- who wanted to take action-not the opposite. Of course, Hitler chose to override his generals, (but let's not go there.)
Finally, another item in the news tonight was the announcement that bread (which is a price controlled product) is going to rise in price tomorrow by 6 percent. The main reason is the 50% increase in American wheat in the last few weeks– due to the drought in the Mid-West. This price hike will cause anger here in the next few days. Though I think everyone is underestimating the effect this is going to have in much of the world that depends on American wheat.