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A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman

June 3, 2007

No Qassams Fall Today


It has been two days since the last Qassam fell on SÕderot. It would seem that Hamas has managed to stop firing the missiles. It is not at all clear for how long the missile fire has ceased. However, Israelis observers believe Hamas has finally dropped its demand that Israel stop taking actions in the West Bank before it agrees to a ceasefire.

Today, the identity of those holding British journalist Alan Johnston became clear. The Islamic Army, who are also the co-kidnapers of Gilad Shalit, are responsible for kidnapping Johnston as well. The Islamic Army is run by a Gazan crime family that has 1,500 armed men. The Islamic Army does not answer to either Hamas or Fatah and is a threat to both.

Fighting continued in the Palestinian refugee camp in Tripoli. The Lebanese army has decided to fight the Al Qaeda associated Palestinian groups. This marks the first time in the course of the Lebanese civil war that the Lebanese army has entered the refugee camps. This mission will be a test of the Lebanese army.

It became official today- Amir Peretz is supporting Ayalon. They have reached an agreement of the minds, but not a true agreement. ItÕs unclear whether this will help Ayalon, some observers think it willÉ I think it will not.

Foreign Minister LivniÕs testimony before the Winograd Committee was made public today. The testimony showed LivniÕs attempts to stop the war after the first day. It also showed Olmert paying no attention, whatsoever, to LiviniÕs position. Livni has been shown to be right. The question is, why did she not resign immediately after being ignored on this matterÉ and if not then, why has she not resigned now?