A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman
August 26 , 2007 Lebanon
The events in Lebanon seem to be a microcosm of how complicated the disputes in the Middle East have become. The Saudi Arabian Ambassador to Lebanon has been evacuated due to threats on his life. The threats have come from Shiite supporters of Nasrallah. However, the Saudis believe that the Syrians are behind the death threats. The Saudis see themselves as the patrons of the Sunnis in Lebanon, who they believe are under threat from the Iranian supported Shiites, with whom the Syrians are aligned. To further complicate matters, the Israeli TV showed an interview broadcast originally on Lebanese television, where a Shiite Imam criticized Hezbollah--The Imam questioned why the Shiites in Lebanon were the only Shiites who... instead of showing their allegiance to their country (Lebanon)... were being directed by Hezbollah to follow the wishes of Iran.
In news that is indirectly related, the Shin Bet warned today that Hamas in Syria has ordered its members to undertake large-scale terrorist actions. Israeli observers are not overly concerned by the threat of an attack from the West Bank. Israeli security services there have been very successful in stopping all the attacks. Rather, the concern is that Hamas in Syria will start becoming directly involved in Qassam and other attacks. Hamas has failed to break out of its worldwide isolation. Conditions continue to worsen in the Gaza Strip, so their last recourse is to try to attack Israel. Some in Hamas even hope that Israel will attack and enter the Strip in large numbers. This, they hope, will change the dynamics, that have not been going their way. To complicate matters even further, and show how utterly inter-related things are, Shaul Mofaz, former Defense Minster, and today’s Minister of Transport stated tonight in an interview on Israeli TV that while Israel can not stand by if the Hamas becomes involved in large scale missile and other types of attacks from Gaza, Israel will be very reluctant to enter Gaza in large numbers, as long as it fears there might soon be a war in the North with Syria.