June 21, 2009 Iran Week Two

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A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman

June 21, 2009 Iran Week Two

It’s now been over a week and the demonstrations continue in Teheran. On Friday the “Supreme Leader” of Iran stated that the demonstrations should end. The fact they did not, transformed the demonstrations from a call to challenge the results of the elections to a call demanding a regime change. The regime is not ready to be changed so quickly, so it remains unclear where the demonstrations will all head. Once again, the world's intellegience agencies have been proven unable to (in any way) predict events. Early last week the head of Mossad stated the demonstrations would peter out in a few days. The American services were no better. Nothing will ever be the same in Iran, since the fundamental internal legitimacy of the regime will forever be in doubt. As one article in Haaretz stated, Which Iran is Israel supposed to bomb? Clearly, Iran is not monolithic in any way.

These event do not call for a Pollyanna moment. We could see the clerics striking out against the US or Israel in the coming days, hoping to promote a reaction that would unite the country. The future is unknown. How willing will the police be to open fire on the protestors? How willing will the protestors be to risk their lives? Only time will tell. However, one thing is certain, the future is not what we expected only a few weeks ago. There has been a fundamental change in Iran. Fundamental Islam's rise is suddenly not a sure thing. In fact, it now finds itself under serious assault.

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