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A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman

February 12, 2008 Is an Attack on Gaza Likely

Today's news has been dominated by the assassination of Imad Mughiniyah. Mughiniyah was on the top list of wanted terrorists worldwide. To Americans he is best known for the bombing of the American barracks in Beirut. To Israel and Jews he is best known for the bombing of the Jewish Center in Argentina. He was the number 2 man in Hezbollah and was responsible for all of the organization's terror activities.

Who killed him? Israel denies it, but of course it is being blamed. Mughniyah was killed in Damascus. Damascus is both a more difficult and easier target location at the same time. On one hand, it is harder to operate freely there since Syria is a closed police society. For those very reasons, however, Mughniyah would have been an easier target there. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has been very careful not to expose its leaders to attacks. That is why Nasrallah is still alive. It does not have that ability nor did it probably feel the need to do that in Syria.

If Israel was responsible for the assassination, will be another success for Meir Dagan the head of the Mossad. Dagan, who was appointed the head of the Mossad by Ariel Sharon, was reported by the Wingrad Commission to have given the most accurate advice during the Second Lebanon War. It was the Mossad that is said to have discovered the Syrian site that was attacked.

There is no doubt that the Hezbollah will try to retaliate, most likely somewhere else in the world and not in the Northern border. The decision to take that risk was no doubt a difficult one, but there are some evil people that when the opportunity arises there can be no question that they need to be eliminated.