A Daily Analysis
By Marc Schulman
February 11, 2010 Fallout from Assasination, Gut Check on Iran.
News in Israel has been dominated by the continued saga of the assassination of Hamas’ Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai. Dubai released video showing various members of the team, as well as the assumed names under which they traveled. The team members all traveled under European passports, some of whose names are the same as real Israelis. The pictures show a group of not very impressive looking individuals, who are clearly heavily disguised. International arrest warrants have gone out against all those accused, but obviously, the names are only aliases. While Dubai has not accused Israel for the assassination, though it is clear Israel had the most to gain. Ultimately there will be a few condemnations, as most of the world, including those whose country's passports were used, all accept the fact that Mahmoud al-Mabhouh was a terrorist and he will not be missed.
When it comes to the Iranian nuclear program it’s time for a gut check. It's clear to everyone that Iran is not going to agree to any deal. I am surprised they did not even try to play out the negotiations in any way, which makes it clear that negotiating with the United States is against the very DNA of the Iranian regime. The Obama administration has finally realized Iran is not going to engage in negotiations. Hopefully, the year of trying has proved to the world it's not the US that is at fault. Of course the question is now what? The US, while talking about sanctions, still seems reluctant to head towards the crippling sanctions Israel is talking about. It looks like Russia is ready to join the call for sanctions. The major question remains what is China going to do? Beyond that, what happens if the expected sanctions fail to stop Iran. Does Israel attack alone? Can it convince the US to do it? Over the weekend the former Israeli Armed Forces Chief and commander of the Air Force, Dan Halutz, warned that Israel should not have to shoulder the complete burden of the west against Iran, saying that Israel is incapable of shouldering the burden alone. I am glad I am not the one that may be forced to choose between groups of bad choices.