11/3/2016 American Israelis Vote For Trump by small Margin
The Presidential elections in the United States remain almost the only topic of conversation in Tel Aviv today. While small local dramas have been playing out in Knesset, where a two-year budget is under discussion,) the issue of who will be the next American President seems much more important—and certainly more interesting—to the average Israeli. Recent polling shows that Israelis, who have tended to support Republican candidates in the past, now prefer Hilary Clinton. In a poll published 10 days ago, 42% of Israelis said they supported Clinton, while 24% said they supported Trump.
Today, a poll was released that actually has some true relevance (i.e., a survey of US citizens living in Israel who voted.) That poll, conducted by iVoteIsrael and Keevoon Global Research, showed that Donald Trump received 49% of the votes of American-Israelis, while Secretary of State Clinton received 44%. Trump's latest polling figure indicate a sharp decline from the 84% of the votes received by Mitt Romney in 2012 and the 76% garnered by Senator McCain in 2008. In the 2016 U.S. election, both presidential candidates were viewed unfavorably by the majority of the respondents.
Voters surveyed were evenly split between men and women—59% of the men supported Trump, while 52% of the woman supported Clinton. Half the voters who participated were religious—with Trump winning 85% of the ultra-Orthodox vote, 63% of the Orthodox vote; while Clinton won 75% of the secular vote and 54% of those who self-identify as "traditional". 60% of those under age 34 voted for Clinton; while 65% of those age 65 and older voted for Trump.
The voters listed the following states as where their ballots will be tabulated: New York, New Jersey, California, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland and Texas.
Though there is some question as to how representative the poll is overall, it clearly reveals two very interesting trends: 1) a very sharp drop in support for the Republican presidential candidate this year, in comparison to prior years and 2) the continued strength of support for Trump in the Orthodox community (who make up about 10% of U.S. Jewry overall, but make up a higher percentage of American Jews who live in Israel.)